Ayr 1.45 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase

This looks like the sort of novice handicap chase where the pace map matters a great deal. Comment Shaper says there are three front runners, strong pressure up front, and a high collapse risk. That is a serious pointer in a 3m soft-ground handicap at Ayr. You do not want to be backing a horse that is likely to get embroiled in a burn-up unless it is very clearly the class act and rock-solid at the trip.

On the HRB TimeWise Master figures, the race should start with the top of the list. Historically that is where most winners come from, and the ratings here say:

Rank 1 – Califet En Vol
Rank 2 – Diamond Dealer
Then Kdeux Saint Fray and the rest.

That top-two bias matters. I would not build the race around a horse ranked lower unless there was a compelling tactical or form reason to do so.

The obvious ones

Califet En Vol is the HRB number one and has the highest total by a small margin. On bare ratings, he has a major chance. But there are two problems. First, his recent Timeform comment is not glowing: he made mistakes at Kempton and was said to need to bounce back. Second, your pasted data also shows he ran at Ayr on Friday and finished 7th of 9, which is a major red flag if lining up again quickly on Saturday. Even if declared, that is hard to ignore. Top-rated, yes. Solid win proposition, no.

Diamond Dealer is second on HRB and is the horse Timeform want. He is progressive, from a bang-in-form yard, and the Skelton angle is not trivial in this race. Smart Stats mention Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, and Harry Skelton has a strong strike-rate on chase favourites. His recent form is rock solid and he arrives after a good Kelso win.

The issue is the shape of the race. Comment Shaper has him as a very consistent front runner who often weakens badly late. In a race with multiple pace angles and a high collapse risk, that is not ideal. If he gets an easy lead, he can win. But the shape data says he probably does not get that luxury.

The one I keep coming back to

Kdeux Saint Fray makes plenty of appeal.

He is only third on HRB overall, which means he does not get the same statistical backing as the top two, but he is the only one just below them with enough substance to justify serious consideration. His profile is strong:

good novice handicap chase form

proven in better races

solid third in the Kempton Grade 3 over 3m

latest Festival run easy enough to forgive

goes left-handed, which looks a plus

first-time/retained tongue tie noted

Timeform say he can bounce back

Racing Post Spotlight strongly upgrades him for the circumstances of his Cheltenham defeat


Most importantly, his style is not as damaging to him in this setup as Diamond Dealer’s. Comment Shaper has him as prominent, but also a strong late finisher. That is exactly the type you want in a race where the front end could overcook it.

The value closers

If the race does collapse, several hold-up or tracking types come into it.

I Wish You is interesting. He is a strong late finisher, handles soft, is progressive, and the Wetherby form with Diamond Dealer ties in neatly. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore have two runners here and both are open to improvement. He is not top two on HRB, though, and that tempers enthusiasm.

Young Jack also fits the shape. He is marked by Comment Shaper as one of the standout late finishers and arrives after a win. But he is only eighth on HRB totals, and that is usually not where I want to be fishing in this sort of race unless everything else lines up perfectly.

Al Kalila has first-time cheekpieces and also has the right late profile, but he beat only three rivals last time and needs another step forward.

Blakey Boy is thriving and clearly likes Ayr, but he is out of the handicap and this is a much deeper race than the ones he has been winning.

Why I am opposing Diamond Dealer at the price

He is the most obvious winner on stable form, Timeform support and progressive profile. But there are enough reasons to look elsewhere:

likely pace pressure is intense

he is one of the main front runners

Comment Shaper says he often weakens late

this is a strongly-run 3m on soft, not a straightforward tactical affair

there are several closers lurking if the race gets messy


In other words, he is a very fair favourite, but not bombproof.

Past-runner trend angle

Recent winners of this race have generally been capable, fairly unexposed types rather than exposed plodders, and several had enough class to cope with a proper Class 2 novice handicap. That suits Kdeux Saint Fray, Diamond Dealer, and to a lesser degree I Wish You and Califet En Vol more than the outsiders.

Self-critique

The danger in this analysis is overplaying the pace collapse angle. Ayr can reward efficient jumpers who get into rhythm, and Diamond Dealer is exactly that. If he gets across and Harry Skelton controls matters, all the shape concerns can look clever but irrelevant.

The other risk is ignoring the HRB rank-one horse too easily. Califet En Vol is top-rated for a reason, and if the Friday run is either not relevant or has been misread in context, I may be underrating him.

There is also a case that I Wish You is the better closer at the weights if this becomes a slog, and his Wetherby form gives him genuine substance.

Reassessment

Even after challenging the first view, I still land on Kdeux Saint Fray.

He sits just below the top two on HRB, which is close enough not to be ignored. He has the right mix of class, tactical fit, and excuses for the last run. He is not dependent on getting his own way in front, and he looks more likely than most to be delivered into the race after the early heat has done some damage.

Selection: Kdeux Saint Fray

He looks the best blend of ratings, form, race setup and likely run style.

Saver / main danger

Diamond Dealer

Next best for the forecast

I Wish You

Verdict strength: Medium

Good race, plenty of depth, and the favourite is perfectly credible, so this is not a strong bet. But Kdeux Saint Fray is the one I would want on my side.