2.20 Ayr – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle

This looks a proper pace race. Comment Shaper has it marked up as a very strong shape, with four front runners, strong early pressure and a high collapse risk. In a race like this, I do not want to be guessing wildly. I want to start with the top two on HRB TimeWise Master, because that is where the bulk of the winners usually come from.

That immediately puts the focus on:

1. Tutti Quanti

2. Captain Hugo


Everything else needs a very solid case to push past them.

The race set-up

There is a lot of pace on paper.

Tutti Quanti, Tellherthename, Ooh Betty and Welsh Charger all have forward profiles. Ooh Betty in particular is an established pace angle, while Tutti Quanti is happiest attacking. Tellherthename also looks likely to be ridden handily enough, especially with the hood now fitted.

That matters because this is not shaping like a soft lead for one classy horse. It looks much more like a race where they can go too hard, and if that happens the finishers come right into it.

The strongest late finishers flagged by Comment Shaper are:

Captain Hugo

Secret Squirrel

Tutti Quanti


Of those, Captain Hugo is the one with the cleanest overall profile.

The main contenders

Captain Hugo

He is the one I want.

He is HRB Rank 2, which is the only meaningful alternative to Rank 1 under your approach, and he has the right shape for the race. He is usually ridden mid-division/prominent, not in the firing line for a pace war, and Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong finisher.

His Morebattle Hurdle win was a serious piece of handicap form. He improved sharply on handicap debut, and the wording from Timeform is important: connections have bypassed the major festivals in favour of this. That reads like a proper target rather than a horse chucked into every big pot going.

He is also better treated at the weights than the top one in the market. In a race where the pace could collapse, a progressive horse carrying 10-10 is very appealing.

There is still upside in him. He is lightly raced, unexposed in handicaps, and his profile says he can take another step.

Tutti Quanti

The obvious danger and the horse I would fear most.

He is HRB Rank 1, and that always commands maximum respect. His Newbury wins were strong, especially the William Hill Hurdle, and dropping back into a handicap after the Champion Hurdle makes him a major player.

But this is where the race shape bites. He is one of the likely pace influences and he is carrying 11-12 in a race packed with other forward goers. If he gets hassled early, that weight becomes a real issue late on.

So yes, he is the most obvious winner on raw ability and ratings, but he is not getting the easiest tactical set-up.

Tellherthename

Very dangerous, but not enough to push past the top two for me.

The positives are clear:

trainer change to Dan Skelton

first-time hood

promising run in the County Hurdle

Timeform and Racing Post both warm on him


Skelton is exactly the type to land a race like this, and the stable switch could easily revive him. The hood could also sharpen his focus.

The problem is that he is only 7th on HRB, and under your own framework that is a big negative unless there is an exceptional reason. There are reasons to think he can outrun that, but there are too many unknowns for me to put him ahead of the two strongest HRB anchors.

Gibbs Island

Not for win purposes against the top two.

He kept on nicely in the County and the hood goes back on, which helped when he bounced back last time. But he is still only 6th on HRB and Timeform’s specific pace hint says an even pace should suit Tellherthename far more than Gibbs Island. He looks more like a place player than the likeliest winner.

All In You

Interesting but risky.

He is a hold-up type, which fits the likely race shape, and his Sandown win suggested ability. But he is out of the handicap, and his Newbury flop needs forgiving. He has a case, but not a better one than Captain Hugo.

Ooh Betty

Could run well again, but the pace map worries me.

She was third in this last year and is only 1lb higher effectively, but she may not get an uncontested lead this time. In this set-up, that is a big problem.

Past race trend angle

Recent winners include:

Cracking Rhapsody – 6yo

Favour And Fortune – 6yo

Rubaud – 5yo

Anna Bunina – 6yo

Milkwood – 7yo


So the recent profile says this race often goes to a horse in the 5-7 age bracket, often one with enough class to compete in strong handicaps but still open to improvement. That fits Captain Hugo very well as a 6yo progressive handicapper.

Equipment and trainer changes

Notable changes:

Tellherthename: first-time hood and still relatively new to Dan Skelton

Gibbs Island: hood back on

Ooh Betty: tongue-tie retained

Queenie St Clair: hood retained

All In You: hood retained

Dedicated Hero: recent wind op mentioned in the notes


The most interesting of these is clearly Tellherthename, but again, I am not prepared to ignore the HRB structure for a horse sitting outside the key two ranks.

Verdict

This is the sort of race where the favourite can be vulnerable without being a bad bet. Tutti Quanti is the best horse on the figures, but the likely pace burn-up and his big weight make him opposable.

Captain Hugo looks the one most likely to get the race run to suit. He is progressive, arrives fresher than some, has already proved himself in a major handicap, and his running style is exactly what I want in a race with possible front-end collapse.

Selection

Captain Hugo

Saver / main danger

Tutti Quanti

Self-critique and reassessment

The obvious counter is that I am opposing HRB Rank 1, which is historically where the strongest strike rate sits. That is never something to do lightly. If the pace does not get as heated as Comment Shaper suggests, or if Tutti Quanti simply proves too classy, he can absolutely win.

There is also the risk that Tellherthename improves a chunk for Skelton and the hood, making his lower HRB rank less relevant than usual.

Even after that reassessment, I still come back to Captain Hugo. He is the best blend of HRB position, likely race set-up, progressive profile and weight.

Confidence: Medium