3.35 Ayr – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase

This is the sort of race where you can get lost in the romance of the marathon trip and start making cases for half the field. Don’t. The HRB TimeWise numbers are usually the best place to start, and here they point very clearly to Isaac Des Obeaux and Git Maker as the two that matter most, with King Of Answers the main danger if you are prepared to forgive the fact he is only third on the list.

The race shape is strong and looks potentially brutal. Comment Shaper has one likely front runner, six prominent racers, a very strong shape and high collapse risk. That matters. In a race over nearly four miles on soft ground at Ayr, too much early pressure can empty plenty turning for home. The obvious read is that it should suit those who stay thoroughly and can keep finding late.

That immediately makes Isaac Des Obeaux interesting, because unlike a lot of these he has already proved himself in a proper marathon test. He comes here off a decisive Midlands National win at Uttoxeter over 4m2f on soft, where he travelled prominently, stayed relentlessly and pulled clear late. That is the standout piece of staying form in the race. HRB has him clear top on Total at 396.7, and that is the key point. You do not need to get clever when the top-rated horse comes here off a career-best in the right race type.

There is a possible concern on the pace map. Timeform calls him one who usually leads, while Comment Shaper has Quebecois as the lone front runner and Isaac as prominent. Either way, he is going to be handy enough. In a race with high collapse risk, that is not ideal on paper. But the counter is simple: he has just won a slog over further, in the same cheekpieces he wears again, and he did it by outstaying them. He is not some free-going doubtful stayer who needs everything his own way. He looks a proper thorough stayer who can absorb pressure.

Git Maker is the saver and the only one I would really want against him on the HRB rules. He is rank 2 on TimeWise at 389.0, so by the numbers he is the main alternative. He was third in the Midlands National behind Isaac, and while he was beaten eight lengths, he shaped as if this sort of trip is exactly what he wants. He also has previous strong handicap staying form and tends to keep on. The problem is obvious enough: he has not been finishing his races off quite as strongly as the bare “strong finisher” label suggests in the biggest tests, and he does not look especially well treated with Isaac having beaten him fair and square last time.

King Of Answers is where the self-discipline gets tested. Timeform likes him plenty, Comment Shaper says strong finisher, and his Cheltenham National Hunt Chase second was a very good run from the back. He is also exactly the type to improve again for this trip. But the HRB instruction is to be careful with rank 3, and that is right. He is not top two on TimeWise, and the pace setup is not ideal for deep hold-up types at this course and trip. Timeform even flags that hold-up horses need plenty going for them here, which is a negative for him. He can absolutely run into it, but on a strict reading he is a danger rather than the pick.

Kim Roque will be popular because Timeform has made him the verdict and his Kim Muir fourth was eye-catching. He was unlucky enough in running and shapes as though this trip will suit. But there are two reasons to resist him as the main selection. First, he is only mid-division on the HRB figures, well below the top two. Second, he is another one coming from off the pace in a race where Ayr’s marathon chase does not always reward exaggerated waiting tactics. He has the class to go well, but not the profile I want to put on top over the HRB rank bias.

Quebecois is the most obvious pace horse and could give them all something to aim at. Paul Nicholls has a good recent record in the race and Harry Cobden rides. He also comes here after a cracking third in the Ultima. If he gets an uncontested lead, he is dangerous. The issue is the trip. Timeform says he is likely to stay beyond 25f rather than being fully proven for a true 4m grind. In this race that is not a small distinction.

Montregard is interesting because Comment Shaper absolutely likes him as a strong late finisher and the likely race setup could suit. He is also thriving, having won the Swinley at Ascot. But his best work has come around three miles, and this is a very different examination. He is more plausible for a place than as the winner.

Chasingouttheblues is progressive and the Mark Walford spring stat is a plus. He shapes as though this trip will suit and he is arriving on the up. The problem is class. He is climbing from good handicap company into one of the hardest staying handicaps of the season. He may not be done improving, but this is a huge ask.

Equipment and stable notes do matter here. Blaze The Way has first-time cheekpieces, which could sharpen him up, but he has plenty to prove at the trip. Our Power switches into blinkers from cheekpieces, but his recent form is not solid enough. Maximilian has had another breathing operation, which offers hope, though his profile still looks more solid than spectacular. Stolen Silver has changed yards twice in the last year and now wears a tongue tie, but the form is nowhere near good enough.

Past renewals also give a steer. Recent winners have tended to be unexposed enough to improve in staying chases, rather than exposed old plodders, and the Irish have had a good say. That helps the cases of King Of Answers, Kim Roque and Road To Home, but it does not knock out Isaac at all because he is still lightly raced over fences for an eight-year-old and has only just shown his hand over marathon trips.

So after going through the obvious alternatives, I keep coming back to the same one.

Selection: ISAAC DES OBEAUX

He is the HRB TimeWise rank 1, which is where the strongest historical edge sits. He has the best recent staying form in the race after winning the Midlands National. He handles soft ground, wears the same cheekpieces, comes from a yard that knows how to land major staying handicaps, and he has already proved he can sustain an effort over further than this. In a race where many are trying to prove they stay, he already has.

Main danger: Git Maker
Next best: King Of Answers

Self-critique and reassessment

The main doubt with Isaac Des Obeaux is tactical. If this turns into a war from a long way out and he gets dragged into a stronger pace than ideal, he could be vulnerable late to a more patiently ridden horse. That is the argument for King Of Answers or Kim Roque sweeping past beaten horses. Also, Uttoxeter and Ayr are different tests, and a hard race in the Midlands National can leave a mark.

Even after allowing for that, he still comes out best. The reason is that the opposition all have their own holes: Git Maker was behind him last time, King Of Answers is only rank 3 and may get too far back, Kim Roque is opposable on HRB rank, and Quebecois still has to prove he fully sees it out.

Verdict: Strong