The 3.42 at Newbury looks a proper novice, not a race to overcomplicate. This is a 1m2f Class 2 for unexposed three-year-olds, and that matters. In this type of race, the market is usually a decent guide, but the edge comes from spotting which horses are most likely to improve now conditions change.

The obvious starting point is Shabab Al Ahli. He is the current favourite for good reason. He made a striking debut at Southwell over nearly this trip, won with authority and did it despite still looking raw. That is the key point. He has already shown a useful level of form, but the bigger angle is that he is not the finished article. Being by Frankel out of Koora, stamina and class are built in, and Newbury’s galloping 1m2f should suit him well. He is the most likely winner.

That said, taking a short price about the most likely winner is not always the same as backing the best bet. This is where Joulany becomes interesting. He has only had two runs, both at shorter trips, and there is a strong case that neither truly played to his strengths. His debut at Kempton was promising, while his York run looked more like a speed test than a proper stamina examination. Now he steps up to 1m2f, which is exactly what his pedigree has been crying out for. He is by Sea The Stars and out of Kitcara, and he is a brother to Al Aasy. That is a serious middle-distance family. At around 8/1, he looks the one most likely to improve beyond what the market currently expects.

Maltese Cross is respected, but he may be priced close enough to his chance. He has solid form, he won a Newmarket maiden that has substance to it, and William Haggas has already said he wants further. He is clearly a nice colt. The issue from a betting angle is whether there is enough juice in the price. He looks more fairly priced than underestimated.

Alfaraz is another who has a case. He shaped like a horse who would improve for 1m2f and his Nathaniel pedigree backs that up. Oisin Murphy is an obvious positive, and Balding’s yard is going well. He is not easy to dismiss, but compared with Joulany he looks a touch more exposed and perhaps not quite as interesting from a value perspective.

My Love Is King is the dark horse among the better-fancied runners. He won at Newcastle over 7f and is bred to stay much further, so this trip could bring out a lot more. The concern is the depth of this race. He may be smart, but he is being asked a much bigger question here.

The outsiders are largely playing for minor money unless one of them proves far better than expected. Much is the only bigger-priced runner who makes some appeal on pedigree alone. Frankel out of Seal Of Approval is blue-blooded stuff, and James Fanshawe is not a trainer to ignore in a race of this nature. Still, debutants in a contest this strong need to be useful straight away.

As for race shape, Timeform expects an even pace, which should make this a fair test rather than a messy tactical affair. That matters because it increases the chance that the best middle-distance colt wins, rather than the one who gets first run in a stop-start race. In those circumstances, proven stamina or strongly projected stamina becomes even more important.

The key point in this race is simple. Shabab Al Ahli sets the standard and is the likeliest winner, but Joulany looks the value because he has the profile of a colt who could take a sizeable step forward now he gets the trip and conditions to suit. In a novice, that is often where the betting edge lies.

Verdict: Shabab Al Ahli is the one to beat, but Joulany is the bet if you are looking for value.