2.17 Plumpton — Prestige Security Executive Protection Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase

This looks a race to keep tight to the top of the HRB rankings, not one to get clever in. The TimeWise Master totals have Delgany Deadline clear on top at 263.0, with Begin The Luck the only serious alternative at 246.6. That matters, because in these ratings the bulk of winners come from the first two slots, and this race does not look the right place to oppose that.

Delgany Deadline is the obvious starting point and, for me, the right one. He is a 6yo who has taken off since going chasing, with figures of 2-1-2 in his last three completed runs over fences. The profile is progressive rather than exposed, and that is important in a small-field Class 5 handicap. His latest second here over further was solid, and the drop back in trip looks a plus rather than a negative. He travelled like a horse with enough tactical speed and still kept on when headed late. In a race lacking depth, that is strong form.

The historical race trend is another tick in his box. Recent winners of this race have been 5, 6, 6, 6 and 7 years old, so Delgany Deadline fits the age pattern perfectly. That is a much better fit than the older exposed types.

The pace angle is where the race gets interesting. Comment Shaper says there are two front-runners and flags strong early pressure with a moderate collapse risk. On that model, Alto Alto and Delgany Deadline could get involved up front, while Begin The Luck is the obvious late closer. On paper that gives Begin The Luck an angle.

But I would not overplay it. In a five-runner race, pace maps can exaggerate collapse scenarios. Timeform actually expects a very weak pace, saying a steadily-run race should suit those ridden prominently, and specifically notes that Delgany Deadline ought to be better placed than Begin The Luck. I am with that view more than the collapse theory. Alto Alto has been forcing it and weakening; Delgany has shown he can go forward without needing to burn the race up.

The main runners

Delgany Deadline
Top-rated, progressive, race-fit, unexposed over fences and well treated off OR 88. The Skelton yard knows how to place one in this grade and Tristan Durrell’s claim helps. He looks the horse most likely to get the run of the race just behind or alongside Alto Alto, then take over when it matters.

Begin The Luck
He is the clear saver on the HRB numbers and the one most likely to capitalise if they do go too hard. Comment Shaper flags him as a strong late finisher, and his Leicester win showed exactly that: outpaced, rallied, then came home best. He is reliable in this grade and trip range, and he is the danger if the leaders overdo it. The slight concern is tactical position. In a small field at Plumpton, hold-up horses can be hostage to the tempo.

Alto Alto
Plumpton specialist, no doubt, and all five wins have come here. But the negatives are piling up. His recent efforts have been mixed, and the Comment Shaper view is blunt: often weakens badly. If he gets pestered early, he is vulnerable late. He is also ranked only third on HRB, which is not where I want to be fishing unless there is a major angle to overturn the top two. I do not see one.

Line Of Descent
Not without ability, but he is another who sits just outside the sweet spot on the ratings. Timeform notes his jumping remains a concern, and that is not what you want around Plumpton. The first-time cheekpieces are an interesting change and could sharpen him up, but he still looks more place than win to me.

Angel’s Dream
Back in blinkers, and there was a little more promise last time, but he still has to find plenty on the figures. His profile says minor money at best.

No-nonsense verdict

Everything keeps bringing me back to Delgany Deadline.

He is:

HRB TimeWise Rank 1

the Timeform pick

the right age trend fit

progressive over fences

likely to be better positioned tactically than the main danger


The only horse I can see seriously beating him is Begin The Luck, and that would most likely happen if the pace gets hotter than Timeform expects and turns into the kind of race Comment Shaper warns about.

Self-critique and reassessment

The case against Delgany Deadline is not hard to build. He has done his best recent work at further, and if this turns into a sharper test on good ground, he could get done for toe by a better-handicapped speedier type. Also, if Comment Shaper is right and the two front-runners force each other on, Begin The Luck becomes very dangerous late.

That said, Alto Alto is the one more likely to crack under pressure, not Delgany. Delgany has looked more professional, more progressive and more tractable. In this grade, I would rather side with the improving 6yo than the exposed older hold-up horse needing the race to fall perfectly.

Selection

Delgany Deadline

Saver / main danger: Begin The Luck

Confidence

Medium-strong.