This looks a fairly typical early-season 1m3f maiden: lightly raced or unraced three-year-olds, limited evidence, and a strong emphasis on pedigree and potential rather than proven form.

Turty Tree sets the standard on experience and has the most solid profile for this trip. His pedigree strongly supports middle distances and he’s already shown enough to suggest he’ll improve again.

Glory Of The Seas has the highest raw ability on pedigree, with a top-class sire influence, and shaped well on debut. However, the dam side tempers confidence slightly, and he may be a touch short in the market.

Water To Wine is the unknown. He’s bred with quality but leans more towards speed on the sire side, so while he could stay, this trip on debut is not a certainty. Likely to be well backed regardless.

Alderman is more of a staying type than the market may reflect. The pedigree suggests this step up in trip will suit, but the overall quality signals are not as strong.

The remainder look either limited or more speculative on pedigree alone.

Summary:

Most solid option: Turty Tree

Highest upside: Glory Of The Seas

Most hype/uncertainty: Water To Wine

Possible value angle: Alderman


Overall, the race should favour a staying type with some experience, rather than a speed-bred newcomer.

(AEI means Average Earnings Index.

It measures how much prize money a sire’s or dam’s offspring have earned relative to the overall average.

How to read it:

1.00 = exactly average

above 1.00 = better than average

below 1.00 = below average


Examples:

AEI 2.13 = offspring have earned about 2.13 times the average

AEI 0.41 = offspring have earned only 41% of average


In pedigree work, AEI is useful because it gives a rough quality/output signal, but it has limits:

Sires: more reliable, because sample sizes are usually bigger

Dams: less reliable, because they may have had very few runners

It measures earnings, not pure talent, so it can be distorted by:

small samples

where horses were campaigned

prize-money structure

one standout runner



For your race card:

Sea The Stars AEI 2.85 = very strong sire quality signal

Alagappa AEI 0.15 = the dam’s produce has shown very little so far

Listen In AEI 1.11 = slightly above-average producer


So in simple terms, AEI tells you whether a pedigree source has actually produced earners above or below the norm. It is a useful support metric, but never enough on its own.)

Here’s a pure pedigree-based breakdown of the key runners in the 4:20 Newbury (1m3f maiden). Focus is on ability vs suitability vs reliability, not hype or connections.


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🟢 TURTY TREE (New Bay × Camelot mare)

Sire (40%)

New Bay: Strong 9–10f influence, good improvement profile, solid AEI (2.13)

Reliable for middle-distance types, handles turf well


Dam (30%)

Weak (AEI 0.41), but Camelot damsire adds stamina

Limited proven output → moderate confidence


Damsire (15%)

Camelot: Elite stamina influence (11f+), improves staying profile


Interaction (15%)

New Bay speed + Camelot stamina = ideal 10–12f progression

Classic middle-distance cross


Scores

Ability: 82

Suitability: 90

Confidence: 78


Verdict: Strong
Market Insight: Likely fairly priced (well found)
Key Angle: Proven stamina progression + strong cross → most reliable fit for 1m3f


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🔵 GLORY OF THE SEAS (Sea The Stars × Shamardal mare)

Sire

Sea The Stars: Elite 10–12f sire, top-class AEI (2.85)

Strong improvement from 2→3


Dam

Very weak (AEI 0.10) → major limitation

Family has depth but dam herself underperformed as producer


Damsire

Shamardal: Speed/mile influence, high quality broodmare sire


Interaction

Classic pattern: stamina sire + speed damsire

Works often, but dam quality drags ceiling down


Scores

Ability: 85

Suitability: 88

Confidence: 70


Verdict: Solid
Market Insight: Slightly overbet (sire bias + Godolphin factor)
Key Angle: Strong sire doing heavy lifting → ceiling high but not fully supported by dam


—

🟡 WATER TO WINE (Kingman × Sea The Stars mare)

Sire

Kingman: Elite miler sire, sharp, high AEI (2.16)

Not naturally a 12f influence


Dam

Solid (AEI 1.11), stays 10–12f

Good balance but not elite


Damsire

Sea The Stars = stamina injection


Interaction

Classic Kingman + stamina dam cross

Produces 10–12f types IF they relax

But still a conversion question at 1m3f on debut


Scores

Ability: 84

Suitability: 82

Confidence: 65


Verdict: Solid
Market Insight: Overbet (Kingman + Gosden + debut hype)
Key Angle: Pedigree says 10f+ possible, but not guaranteed at this trip first time


—

🟠 ALDERMAN (Study Of Man × Archipenko mare)

Sire

Study Of Man: Strong 10–12f profile, improving sire (AEI 1.96)

Limited sample but positive signs


Dam

Very weak (AEI 0.15)

Major negative for class ceiling


Damsire

Archipenko: Solid middle-distance influence


Interaction

Stamina stacked, but quality lacking on dam side


Scores

Ability: 74

Suitability: 88

Confidence: 68


Verdict: Neutral
Market Insight: Likely underbet
Key Angle: Strong stamina setup → trip will suit better than most realise


—

🟣 EBEN AL KHAWANEEJ (Camelot × Oasis Dream mare)

Sire

Camelot = strong stamina, proven


Dam

Weak (AEI 0.33), sprint family


Damsire

Oasis Dream: Speed influence


Interaction

Extreme mix: stamina sire + sprint dam

Outcome = uncertain type


Scores

Ability: 76

Suitability: 80

Confidence: 55


Verdict: Neutral
Market Insight: Fair
Key Angle: Pedigree conflict → less predictable than market suggests


—

🔴 REST (Grilse, Blue Hercules, Last Trump)

GRILSE (Sea The Moon)

Stamina OK, dam weak → limited upside

Ability 70 | Suitability 85 | Confidence 50

Verdict: Weak


BLUE HERCULES (Ghaiyyath)

Unproven sire, weak dam → low baseline

Ability 68 | Suitability 75 | Confidence 40

Verdict: Weak


LAST TRUMP (Sir Percy)

Strong staying pedigree but low class signals

Ability 72 | Suitability 90 | Confidence 45

Verdict: Weak



—

🧠 FINAL PEDIGREE RANKING (VALUE-ADJUSTED)

1. Turty Tree → best blend of proven suitability + solid cross


2. Glory Of The Seas → high ability, slightly overbet


3. Water To Wine → talent but trip not fully guaranteed


4. Alderman → underrated stamina angle


5. Others → need major outperforming




—

💡 KEY EDGE SUMMARY

Most reliable pedigree for TODAY: Turty Tree

Most likely overbet: Water To Wine

Hidden angle: Alderman (stamina + improvement not priced in)

Highest raw ceiling: Glory Of The Seas (but not bombproof)