4.28 Tramore – Core Bullion Traders Handicap Chase
Selection: Tullyveery Lad
Confidence: Medium

This is the sort of Tramore handicap chase where the shape matters a great deal. Comment Shaper points to a properly strong pace, with two front runners, two prominent racers, an early pressure figure of 7.18, and a high collapse risk. In plain terms, this looks likely to be run too hard up front, which should bring the closers and efficient stalkers into it late.

That immediately puts the spotlight on the horses best suited by a searching gallop, and the first place to start is the HRB TimeWise Master because the top two ranks historically dominate these races. On that basis alone, the race should revolve around Tullyveery Lad and Killinure Lass, with the rest needing to overturn the strongest statistical bias in the book.

Why Tullyveery Lad is the pick

He is Rank 1 on HRB Total (284.0) and that matters. Per your rule set, Rank 1 is the most likely winner and the analysis should be built around him unless there is a compelling reason to oppose. I do not see one.

He also fits the shape of the race well enough. Comment Shaper has him as a hold-up horse and one of the strong late finishers. In a race where the pace looks set to be contested and vulnerable late, that is a major plus. He does not need to force the issue, and that should help him conserve enough for the straight.

There is also the course-and-distance angle. He is a C&D winner, having won this sort of test here in August, and Tramore form counts for plenty. He was also third here behind Killinure Lass on his last start over hurdles in October, so the track clearly suits him. His overall profile at the trip is solid and he has proven he can finish off around here.

His Timeform line is fair rather than flashy, but not negative. They note he was “not discredited” when last seen and returns to fences after a break. More importantly, there is no mismatch between the horse and the expected race set-up. He is exactly the type you want if the leaders overdo it.

The main danger: Killinure Lass

She is the obvious alternative because she is Rank 2 on HRB (282.3) and that is the only meaningful saver according to your framework. She is also another strong late finisher in Comment Shaper, has high confidence in her predicted run style, and is a course-and-distance winner.

There is plenty to like. She won here in October, she handles the track, and Timeform’s price hint is interesting: she traded very short in-running when beaten last time, which often suggests the bare result undersells the run. The trainer stat is also a small positive, with J P Dempsey showing a profit with a sole chaser runner on the card in the Timeform smart stats provided.

The slight concern is that she has been off 153 days, and while she can go well fresh enough, she does not have the same clean “everything aligns” profile as Tullyveery Lad. She is a serious danger, but for me just the second choice rather than the main play.

Why not Sammy Smart?

Timeform makes Sammy Smart the verdict, and there is logic to it. He is well treated on recent form, comes here off a good Navan fourth, and his Punchestown win ties in well enough. He is also fourth on HRB, so not impossible.

But under your rules, I do not want to desert the top two too easily, and there are reasons to resist. Comment Shaper does have him as a hold-up runner and strong finisher, which suits, but the market has him very short relative to some others and his profile is not bombproof at the trip on softer ground. He is a danger, just not the one I want as the main selection when the top two HRB horses already fit the likely pace scenario.

Other runners

Binge Worthy is the interesting one if you want a horse for the collapse scenario. Timeform explicitly says he would be favoured by a very strong pace, and Comment Shaper agrees. But he is only Rank 5, and his latest run was poor in first-time blinkers. Too risky for the win call.

Lisleigh Lad also has strong late-finisher credentials and shaped well enough at Fairyhouse, but he is only Rank 6 and Timeform specifically warns that he may be vulnerable despite the pace setup. He has a habit of not quite sealing the deal.

General Clermont is Rank 3, so he is the only one outside the top two worth a proper mention. He has good bits of Tramore form and was second in this race last year before being run down by Rochestown. The problem is the lay-off and the fact he can get involved earlier than ideal in a race likely to punish that.

Mount Frisco is a course winner and arrives in decent nick, but he is one of the likely pace angles and that is a concern given the shape. He may help set this up for something else.

Aclass is a C&D winner and his latest run can be marked up because he was hampered, but he is only Rank 10 and probably needs everything to fall right.

Race trend angle

Recent renewals show that course form matters. Rochestown won this in 2024 and 2025, and several of the likelier players here are already proven at Tramore: Tullyveery Lad, Killinure Lass, Aclass, Mount Frisco, Clifftop, Rochestown. That strengthens the case for siding with a horse who already knows how to get this track right.

Tullyveery Lad ticks that box neatly.

Equipment and trainer notes

There are no dramatic new equipment moves among the main selection pair from what you have posted.
Killinure Lass runs in the same setup noted previously, and Tullyveery Lad does not bring a fresh headgear angle.

Trainer-change angles are more relevant to outsiders like Carrig Sam and Ringdufferin, but both have too much to prove. Those are not the sort I want in a race where the HRB top two already have strong cases.

Self-critique

The obvious knock on Tullyveery Lad is the absence. He has not run since October and returns to fences after a break. If he is short of sharpness, this may be set up perfectly for a fitter closer such as Killinure Lass or even Sammy Smart.

There is also the possibility that the race does not fully collapse despite the pace map. Sometimes these Tramore handicaps look hotter on paper than they are in reality, and if one of the forward horses gets an easy enough rhythm, a closer can be left with too much to do.

Even so, once I rework it from the top using your method, I still come back to the same horse. Rank 1 on HRB, proven at the track, suited by the likely race shape, and no need to rely on a wild interpretation to make the case.

Verdict

Tullyveery Lad is the winner call.
Killinure Lass is the clear saver and main danger.
Sammy Smart is respected, but I would rather keep faith with the HRB top two.

Final call: Tullyveery Lad
Selection strength: Medium