5.00 Tramore – West Waterford Novice Handicap Chase

This looks a race to keep fairly simple.

The first thing to say is that the HRB TimeWise Master rankings point strongly towards Kotkito Bello, and that matters. He is clear Rank 1 on 295.5, with Torquay Road the only serious alternative on Rank 2 at 250.0. Given the historic edge of the top two ranks, the race should be built around those pair rather than getting too clever with the rest.

Race shape

Comment Shaper suggests a strong pace setup with two front runners and moderate collapse risk. Kotkito Bello and Marelly both want to get on with it, and that raises the possibility of the lead becoming contested rather than gifted.

That is the only slight concern for Kotkito Bello, because his best form comes when allowed to bowl along and jump. Even so, this is not a deep race, and he still looks the one most likely to get control or at least sit in the right place.

The late finishers flagged by Comment Shaper are Soldante, In The Trenches and Torquay Road. Of those, Torquay Road is the one that interests most because he also has the ratings profile to back it up.

The likely favourite: Kotkito Bello

He makes plenty of appeal.

He is top-rated by a fair margin, has already won over fences, and Timeform are very forgiving of his latest hurdle run, suggesting he did too much too soon and is better judged on his earlier efforts. That reads well here because this return to chasing looks deliberate and sensible.

His chase debut win at Thurles came when he jumped fluently and travelled like a horse well ahead of his mark. Since then he has run in much hotter hurdle handicaps, including Leopardstown and Fairyhouse, and this is a big drop in class from those assignments.

There is no new headgear angle beyond the usual setup, but the key point is the switch back to fences. That looks a positive rather than a neutral move.

The main negative is the pace map. With Marelly also a confirmed front runner, Kotkito Bello may not get an easy lead. If they take each other on too hard, he becomes more vulnerable late on than the raw ratings suggest. Still, he is the most likely winner because he has the best figures, the strongest recent class angle and the clearest excuse for his last run.

The main danger: Torquay Road

He is the obvious saver.

HRB has him Rank 2, which immediately puts him on the shortlist, and Comment Shaper also gives him a strong tactical case. He is likely to be ridden colder and could be the one picking up the pieces if the front end gets messy.

His third on chase debut at Down Royal was solid, and Timeform were prepared to excuse the Fairyhouse run on heavy ground. Back on a sounder version of soft and at this sort of trip, he looks set for a better showing. He is not bombproof, but he is the one most likely to capitalise if the pace collapses.

The rest

Marelly arrives off a good second at Limerick and is respected, but he looks vulnerable for win purposes. Comment Shaper is pretty clear that he often weakens late, and if he gets into a lead battle with Kotkito Bello that may expose him again. He is more place than win for me.

In The Trenches has the profile of one who could run well without winning. He has gone a long time without getting his head in front, and that matters. He is one of the better finishers in the field, but his tendency to find one or two too good is hard to ignore.

Icare d’Aubrelle is interesting on handicap chase debut and Jack Kennedy is a plus, but his run style and finishing habits are not ideal. He has a habit of weakening after travelling into it.

Soldante is a possible improver after his comeback and first chase start, but he is only Rank 7 on HRB and that makes him hard to elevate above the top two.

Nas Na Riogh is fitted with cheekpieces again, but Timeform call him patchy and probably vulnerable. That feels about right.

There are no notable trainer changes in the field from the details supplied.

Any race trends?

There are no past winners listed for this race, so there is no meaningful historical race trend to lean on. In that case, ratings and race shape deserve even more weight than usual.

Verdict

Everything keeps bringing me back to Kotkito Bello.

He is HRB Rank 1, has already shown he can win over fences, comes here after competing in stronger races, and the return to this sphere looks the move that can unlock him again. The pace is not absolutely perfect because Marelly could make life awkward, but Kotkito Bello still has the best chance of bossing the race.

Selection: KOTKITO BELLO
Saver / main danger: TORQUAY ROAD

Self-critique and reassessment

The case against Kotkito Bello is straightforward: if Marelly forces a proper pace battle, both could set it up for a closer. In that scenario, Torquay Road becomes very dangerous and possibly the value play.

But when reassessing, I still cannot get away from the fact that most winners come from the top two HRB ranks, and Kotkito Bello is not just Rank 1, he is clear of the field. He also has the strongest class edge and the most persuasive reason to improve for today’s setup.

So the reassessment changes nothing. Kotkito Bello remains the winner pick.

Confidence: Medium