5.12 Plumpton – Kalm Club Keep Calm & Gallop On Handicap Hurdle

Selection: Alien Storm

This looks the sort of race where you do not need to be too clever. The HRB TimeWise Master says Alien Storm is Rank 1, and that matters because the top rank is where the bulk of winners come from. Notnowlinda is the only serious alternative as Rank 2. The rest need plenty to fall right.

Why Alien Storm is the pick

Alien Storm heads the HRB totals on 317.6, just ahead of Notnowlinda on 314.4, and he is clear of the remainder. That is the right starting point, and there is enough in the rest of the data to back it up.

His recent profile is solid. He won twice over fences in the autumn, including at Plumpton over this sort of trip, and his latest run in a much stronger Class 2 chase at Fontwell was not a disgrace at all. He travelled into it before weakening late off a career-high mark. Back over hurdles in a Class 4, this is much more realistic.

Timeform is a touch cool on him, saying he does not look obviously well treated back over hurdles, which is fair enough, but the race setup gives him a chance to prove otherwise. Comment Shaper has him as a prominent type, not an out-and-out hold-up horse, and that is useful in a seven-runner Plumpton handicap where you do not want to be giving lengths away.

He also has the best mix of:

proven course form

proven trip form

class edge from stronger races

enough tactical speed to sit handy without needing the lead


The pace angle

This is the most interesting part of the race.

Comment Shaper says:

one front runner only

Goodwin is that front runner

strong front-runner profile

moderate collapse risk

strong late finishers include Notnowlinda and Alien Storm


That tells you Goodwin may get his own way, but he is not bombproof because the field does contain horses that finish. Goodwin’s run style is very straightforward: he goes forward and often weakens. If he gets a freebie, he can be dangerous. If he is made to work at all, he becomes vulnerable late.

Alien Storm looks well placed to track the pace and attack at the right time. He does not need everything to collapse, just enough pressure for Goodwin to come back.

Main danger: Notnowlinda

She is the obvious saver and the only one I would seriously fear.

Rank 2 on HRB, Timeform’s selection, and her latest third at Uttoxeter reads well enough. Harry Skelton back on is a plus, and she is well handicapped on older form. Comment Shaper also flags her as a strong late finisher, which fits this race if Goodwin overdoes it.

My slight concern is tactical position. She is usually ridden colder, and in a small field at Plumpton that can leave you with ground to make up. She is definitely on the shortlist, but I would still rather side with the horse more likely to get first run.

Why I am opposing the others

Goodwin
Very dangerous if left alone, and Timeform’s pace note gives him a fair shout. Plumpton suits him, Chris Gordon does well here, and Tom Cannon is a positive. But the negatives are hard to ignore: his last three hurdle runs have ended with him folding badly after forcing it. The usual headgear is left off as well. He could trade short in running, but I do not trust him to finish.

Hecouldbetheone
Third on HRB and that is about right. He is the one Rank 3 you could make a case for because he is a dual C&D winner and Sean Bowen is back on. The problem is that his recent best effort came in a seller, and Alien Storm already had his measure at Plumpton in October. More place than win for me.

Oakley’s Way
Solid, consistent, and likely to run his race. Two decent recent seconds and no issue with the track. But he is still win-shy and this is a better race than the bare class suggests. I can see him running on for second or third without quite getting there.

The Bellhop
Interesting four-year-old getting weight and trying this longer trip. Comment Shaper says strong late finisher and he was not disgraced at Ascot. But he is now into open older handicappers and this is a different test. He is talented, though I suspect he is a touch short enough for what he has to prove.

Hiconic
Hard to have. Plenty of exposed form and not enough recent evidence she is ready to win this.

Equipment and trainer notes

There are no trainer switches of consequence here. On equipment:

Goodwin: usual headgear left off, which is worth noting rather than treating as a plus

Hecouldbetheone: shown with cheekpieces

Notnowlinda and The Bellhop: also listed with headgear

no dramatic change that makes me want to overturn the ratings


Trend angle

There are no past winners for this exact race, so there is no meaningful race-specific trend to lean on. In that case, I would trust the stronger general signals:

top two on HRB

proven Plumpton form

ability to travel in the right part of the race

finishing power against a potentially vulnerable leader


Verdict

Alien Storm is the most solid answer. He is HRB Rank 1, has the right course and trip credentials, comes here from stronger company, and the race shape should allow him to sit close enough to strike without getting dragged into a pace war.

Saver / main danger: Notnowlinda
Best of the rest: Goodwin if allowed his own way

Self-critique

The risk with Alien Storm is obvious enough: his best recent form has been over fences, and Timeform is not convinced he is well treated back over hurdles. There is also a scenario where Goodwin gets a soft lead and pinches it round Plumpton. If that happens, the race may not set up for a closer at all.

Even so, when I reassess it, I still come back to the same point: Alien Storm is the best combination of rank, class, track suitability and tactical position. Notnowlinda is respected, but Alien Storm is the cleaner betting shape.

Final selection: Alien Storm

Confidence: Medium