3.35 Curragh: Alleged Stakes preview – form, pedigree and the likeliest winners

The Alleged Stakes at the Curragh looks a proper spring Group 3: a small but deep field, soft ground, a strong pace on paper, and a mix of exposed Group horses and unexposed four-year-olds who could easily improve again.

Over 1m2f on soft, this is unlikely to be won by speed alone. It should take a horse with enough class to travel at the level, but also enough stamina and toughness to see it out properly if the pace develops as expected. That makes this an interesting race from both a form and pedigree angle.

The class act: Royal Rhyme

On established form, Royal Rhyme is the standout.

He has already shown himself fully effective at around this trip in stronger company than this, and his Group 1 efforts last season make him the horse with the best proven level in the line-up. His third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and solid efforts behind top-class opposition set the standard. If he comes back in the same shape, he is the one they all have to beat.

The slight question is not class, but circumstance. He has been off the track for a while, and a strongly-run race on soft ground may not be ideal if he is short of peak fitness first time back. Even so, his pedigree is rock solid for this test. Lope De Vega gives him top-level 8f–10f quality, while the dam side adds depth and balance rather than speed-only sharpness. He looks exactly what he is: a Group horse running in a Group 3.

He is the most likely winner on bare ability. The issue is whether he is the best betting proposition if the market fully reflects that.

The solid filly with the right profile: Beset

If there is one runner whose profile really fits this race, it is Beset.

Her recent form is strong enough already. She ended last season with a decisive Listed win at the Curragh on heavy ground and returned with another Listed success at Naas. That matters, because she is not merely a filly with some promise; she is already proving herself in the right conditions and over the right sort of trip.

Pedigree strengthens the case. Expert Eye would not immediately leap off the page for a soft-ground 1m2f Group 3, but Beset’s strength is underneath. Her dam, Beshayer, has produced middle-distance quality, and the Galileo influence as broodmare sire gives the page the stamina and grounding it needs. This is the sort of pedigree that makes sense specifically for today’s race, not just in general terms.

She may not have the same headline level as Royal Rhyme, but she looks one of the safest options to run her race. In a contest where some rivals have to prove fitness, trip certainty or maturity, that counts for plenty.

The one with the strongest all-round recent profile: Green Impact

Green Impact is easy to like.

His form from last season reads well, and he shaped as though this trip would suit when tackling good company. He has already shown smart ability, and unlike some of the others, he does not need a dramatic leap of faith to see him involved.

Pedigree-wise, he has one of the strongest pages in the race. Wootton Bassett provides class and versatility, but the real substance is on the dam side. Emerald Green has an exceptional production record, and Galileo as damsire gives him exactly the kind of middle-distance depth you want for 1m2f on soft. That cross looks highly credible for a race like this.

He is not quite as proven at the top level as Royal Rhyme, but he is less speculative than some of the unexposed types and has fewer obvious holes in his profile. He looks a major player.

The dangerous improver: Red Letter

Red Letter brings a slightly different shape to the race.

Her best form last season came over shorter, but she did win a Group 3 over 9f and has been campaigned as though 1m2f would come in time. She is clearly talented, and there is no doubt that she has the class to be involved if she has trained on.

From a pedigree point of view, there is plenty to like. Frankel is an obvious source of quality and stamina, but the dam side is a little more mixed for this exact test. Red Impression is a very good producer, though the family leans a shade more towards class and pace than deep middle-distance stamina. That does not rule her out at all, but it does suggest that 1m2f on soft in a properly-run race is a question she still has to answer completely.

She is a likely winner if she sees the trip out strongly. She is just not the most bombproof proposition in the field on that count.

The intriguing wildcard: Twain

Few horses in the race are more interesting than Twain.

He did a lot in very little time as a two-year-old, winning a maiden and then a Group 1 in quick succession. That alone makes him impossible to dismiss. If he has trained on and returns at the same level of promise, he could easily be better than these.

But there are obvious risks. He has had a long absence, he has not been seen at four, and this is a demanding comeback assignment. His pedigree is excellent, but it is still more about upside than certainty for today. Wootton Bassett on top and Montjeu underneath is a powerful mix of class and stamina, and there is enough in the family to think 1m2f will suit. Still, he is being asked to do plenty after so long off.

He is the sort who could win and look a Group 1 horse in the making. He is also the sort who could just need the run.

The value angle: Omni Man

If there is a runner who makes more appeal at a bigger price than the market may suggest, it is Omni Man.

His form is not quite at the same level as the principals, but it is better than it may first appear. He shaped well in handicaps and Listed company, and he looks the sort who could improve again as a four-year-old. The likely strong pace should help him too.

The interesting part is the pedigree. At first glance, Invincible Spirit can make a horse look sharper than ideal for a soft-ground 10f Group race. But the dam side changes the picture completely. His dam stayed well, and Rainbow Quest as damsire is a serious stamina influence. That combination often produces exactly the sort of horse who is better than he first appears once the race becomes a true test.

He has a bit to find on form, but he is not a random outsider from a pedigree point of view. He is one to take seriously if looking beyond the obvious names.

The dependable Curragh performer: Trustyourinstinct

Trustyourinstinct is unlikely to be fashionable, but he deserves respect.

He is a proven Curragh horse, he is reliable, and his form says he can mix it in this grade on the right day. He may just lack the scope of some of the four-year-olds, but he is the type to run his race again.

His pedigree is also a sensible fit. Churchill gives him a solid ten-furlong base, while the dam side adds more stamina than the sire alone suggests. There is nothing flashy about the page, but it is functional and honest for this kind of test.

He may not have the upside of Twain or the class ceiling of Royal Rhyme, but he is one of the more plausible place contenders.

Others

Eastwatch has a better pedigree for this than his price might imply, especially with Camelot on the dam side, but he still has enough to prove at this level.

Bubble Gum is bred for a real staying test and should handle conditions, but this may be sharper and classier than ideal.

Starford looks more like a useful staying handicapper than a natural Group 3 winner.

Edward Hamilton has the Frankel factor, but his overall profile is still light and he looks more speculative than solid.

Carolina Jetstream has some ability, but her pedigree does not make her one of the stronger fits for a soft-ground Curragh 1m2f Group race.

Verdict

This looks a race where Royal Rhyme sets the standard, but not necessarily one where he is impossible to oppose. If he returns at his best, he is the likeliest winner. He has the form, the class and the pedigree to justify favouritism.

That said, Beset appeals as the runner with the most convincing blend of current form, proven suitability and race-specific pedigree. She looks highly likely to run well and may be the one to capitalise if Royal Rhyme is not fully wound up.

Green Impact is the other obvious major player, with a strong profile on both form and breeding, while Red Letter and Twain are the two with the class to win if things fall right, albeit with more to prove.

For those looking for a slightly bigger-priced angle, Omni Man is the interesting one. He is not the most obvious pick, but his pedigree suggests he could be better suited by this race than the market may allow for.

Likeliest winners

1. Royal Rhyme


2. Beset


3. Green Impact


4. Red Letter


5. Twain



Best value angle

Omni Man

Most solid each-way type

Trustyourinstinct


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