3.12 Redcar – 7f Class 6 Handicap

This is a messy low-grade handicap, but the tools give us a clear framework if you stick to them properly.

Race Shape

Comment Shaper is the starting point here. There is no confirmed front runner and heavy early pressure (4.46) from a cluster of prominent racers. That usually leads to one thing at Redcar over 7f:

➡️ Race set up for hold-up horses and late finishers

The collapse risk is moderate, but with this many pace pushers and no natural leader, it can easily turn into a burn-up.

Strong late finishers flagged:

Elettaria

One Of Our Own

Woodrafff


Add in Tickets (not starred but consistently finishing well), and the race shape becomes very clear.


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HRB TimeWise Master Ratings

1st Tickets (267.9)

2nd One Of Our Own (249.0)

3rd Woodrafff

4th Perfidia


We don’t overcomplicate this — ~26% of winners come from Rank 1, and most of the rest from Rank 2. That’s your backbone.


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Shortlist Analysis

🥇 Tickets (Rank 1)

Proven at the track and trip

Comes here in form (1st–3rd–2nd profile)

Strong finisher, regularly staying on late

Handles being held up (ideal for this shape)

Cheekpieces retained


Only slight concern: wide draw (14), but in a collapse scenario that’s far less of an issue.

Everything lines up — ratings + run style + current form


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🥈 One Of Our Own (Rank 2)

Strong late finisher ⭐

Habitually slowly away → actually a positive here

Solid recent run at Catterick

Step back up to 7f is a slight question, but pace may compensate


Big danger if the race collapses fully.


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⚠️ Others

Woodrafff (Rank 3)
Fits the pace angle well and consistent, but lacks the finishing punch of the top two and doesn’t win often. Place claims more than win.

Perfidia (Rank 4)
Ran well last time, but his profile is more prominent/pressing — that’s a negative in this setup. Opposable given the shape.

Elettaria (big price)
Interesting from a pace perspective, but lacks the class edge and win intent. Late minor money type.


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Verdict

This race should be run to suit something coming from off the pace, and the ratings point firmly to one horse.

👉 Selection: TICKETS
Saver: ONE OF OUR OWN


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Self Critique

The obvious concern is that Tickets has been doing most of his recent work at 6f on the AW, so translating that to a strongly-run 7f turf race is not completely bombproof. Also, if the pace doesn’t collapse as expected and something gets a soft lead (despite the data), hold-up horses could be inconvenienced.

That said, both ratings and race shape strongly align, which is exactly what you want in these races.


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Strength of Selection: MEDIUM

Solid on data and setup, but this is still a Class 6 handicap with inherent volatility.