1.52 Catterick – racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap

Winner pick: Fortunate Star
Saver: Tuscan Point
Danger at a price: Birkenhead
Selection strength: Medium

This is a sharp 5f handicap where the shape matters plenty. Comment Shaper points to a very strong early pace, with Miss Rainbow, Nacho Nacho Nacho and Birkenhead all likely to go forward. In these Catterick sprints, that can set it up for one ridden just off the speed rather than one involved in a proper tear-up from the gate.

That is the main reason I come down on Fortunate Star.

From the HRB TimeWise Master figures, he is Rank 1 on total, and that is the starting point. Historically the top rank is the right place to begin, and in this race the numbers also line up with the likely pace setup. He is not a need-the-lead type, he is a C&D winner, he was third in this race last year, and he arrives in better recent form than most after a very solid all-weather run of 11233.

Timeform is slightly cooler on him than HRB, but still positive enough: “should be on the premises once again”. Racing Post is stronger and, to my eye, explains the race best: he can take a grip, so a strong gallop helps him settle and finish. With Conor Whiteley taking 5lb, he looks well positioned to stalk and strike late.

Why not just side with Tuscan Point?

He is the obvious one. Timeform says the likely strong pace may increase his prospects, and he is the one they have nearest the top of the market. He has also run very well since joining Adam Kirby, winning and then going close off this mark.

But there are enough doubts to stop me making him the main bet. He is only HRB Rank 3, he is 0-14 on turf, he drops to 5f on a rare try at the minimum trip, and there is an equipment change with cheekpieces replacing his usual eyeshields. He absolutely can win, but there is more guesswork involved than the price suggests.

The race shape angle

This looks the key.

Miss Rainbow is a genuine pace force and very consistent, but she may not get her own way.

Nacho Nacho Nacho is another likely to force it and now has a new headgear combination of cheekpieces and hood replacing the visor.

Birkenhead is the old rogue who loves this track and won this race last year from the same mark, but again he is another part of the pace story.


If two or three of them take each other on, it should suit a horse delivered late off the speed. That points straight at Fortunate Star, and to a lesser extent Tuscan Point and Lets Go Hugo.

What to make of the Timeform verdict on Nacho Nacho Nacho?

Timeform have gone with Nacho Nacho Nacho, based on the return to 5f and the fresh headgear angle. I can see the case, but I do not love it.

He won over 7f at Wolverhampton in first-time visor, and his profile since has been mixed rather than progressive. This is only his second try at 5f on turf, and in a race where there is loads of pace already, I am not convinced adding another likely forward-goer is the percentage play. He is HRB Rank 6, which is a negative on my reading of these figures. He is not impossible, but he is opposable at the likely odds.

The one the shape keeps bringing back into it

Birkenhead is hard to ignore. Timeform say a strong pace will not diminish his prospects, which is interesting for a horse usually seen on the sharp end. He is a four-time C&D winner, won this race last year, is back on the same mark, and reportedly bled when poor at Southwell last time. If that run is forgiven, he is dangerous.

He is only HRB Rank 4, though, and at nine years of age he is not getting any quicker. He makes more appeal as a lively danger than as the main call.

Others

Miss Rainbow is HRB Rank 2, which makes her the clear saver on the raw ratings. She is thriving enough, handles the track and has fewer question marks than most. The issue is tactical rather than ability: she could be softened up by the other pace angles.

Lets Go Hugo is the closer the pace map will tempt many into. Comment Shaper has him as the standout late finisher, and he was only a head behind Fortunate Star when fourth in this race last year. He is not a bad each-way shout, but he does not win often enough for me to elevate him beyond that.

Tommy McJohn has a trainer change angle, now with Adrian Keatley, his fifth yard, and loses the blinkers worn for his better Dundalk effort. Too risky.

Lucius Aurelius has bits of Catterick form but arrives looking out of sorts.

Barmyblade is well treated on old form and has the low draw, but there has been little sign of a revival.

Jamie’s Choice is well handicapped if rediscovering old spark, and Timeform mention trouble in running on reappearance, but she still needs plenty to fall right.

Previous race trend

The recent winners do not point to one fixed type. We have had winners aged 4, 5, 6 and 8, and prices have ranged from 10/3 favourite to 33/1. What does stand out is that proven Catterick 5f form is a major asset. That helps Fortunate Star, Birkenhead, Miss Rainbow, Lets Go Hugo and Barmyblade, with Fortunate Star and Birkenhead especially solid on that count.

Self-critique

The main concern with Fortunate Star is obvious: his best recent form is on the all-weather, not turf, and Timeform do not quite have him at the very top. Also, the draw in stall 9 is not ideal if low numbers do hold an edge.

The case against Tuscan Point may also be too harsh if you believe the race will collapse late, because he is exactly the sort who could be produced off a strong pace and go by. If he takes to the surface and trip, he could easily prove the best horse in the race.

So this is not a max-confidence selection. It is a value-and-shape call based on the full set of evidence.

Final verdict

Fortunate Star is the most sensible winner pick. He is HRB Rank 1, proven at the track and trip, arrives in form, and the expected race shape should suit him better than the main pace horses.

Saver: Tuscan Point because he is the most plausible threat if the stronger pace helps him settle and finish.
Big danger: Birkenhead back at his beloved Catterick.

Selection strength: Medium