3.10 Perth – Fair Maid Of Perth Mares’ Chase

This looks a small-field Listed race, but the shape is pretty straightforward once the key pieces are lined up.

The starting point is HRB TimeWise Master, and that matters.
Panic Attack is Rank 1 on the figures with 392.8, clear of Ruby Island 369.0 and Shecouldbeanything 363.5. Given the historical edge of the top-rated runner, that immediately puts Panic Attack in the box seat. Rank 2 is the only realistic alternative on the usual HRB bias, but here Ruby Island’s rating flatters her a bit because the form substance is nowhere near as strong as the favourite’s.

Race shape

Comment Shaper suggests no obvious front runner and only moderate early pressure. In a four-runner race like this, that usually means the classiest mare who can travel and quicken off a steady-to-even gallop is favoured. Timeform says the pace forecast is very weak, and specifically notes that Panic Attack should not be troubled by any pace scenario.

That is a big positive. There is no obvious setup here to expose her.

Panic Attack

She is the clear form horse. Since joining Dan Skelton she has won four of her five completed chase starts, including major handicap prizes and a Listed event at Newbury. Her third in the Cheltenham Festival Mares’ Chase over an inadequate 2m4f reads well in this company, and the Aintree fall came so early that it may not have left much of a mark physically.

Her Comment Shaper profile says strong finisher, and that fits what we know: she stays, she keeps finding, and this trip looks ideal. In a race lacking a confirmed front runner, she should be able to sit wherever Harry Skelton wants.

The only niggle is the obvious one: 11 days after a Grand National fall. That is not nothing. Also, Timeform flags that she has been beaten twice before when trading odds-on in running, so she is not bombproof. Even so, on raw ability and current profile, she sets the standard by a fair margin.

Shecouldbeanything

She is the one I would have as the main danger.

Comment Shaper marks her down as a strong late finisher and one of the three strongest closers in the field. She is also likely to race handily enough from a tracked-leaders position, which could suit in this tactical contest. Timeform’s analyst verdict has her completing the forecast, and the yard’s Perth record is a plus.

There are, however, clear negatives. She was pulled up in the Irish National 16 days ago, and her profile is patchy enough to justify the “unpredictable” tag. She also wears tongue-tie and cheekpieces, so the headgear angle is unchanged rather than newly interesting. At her best she is good enough to be second, but she still has to prove she can put it all together against a rival of Panic Attack’s calibre.

Apple Away

She is respected, especially as a previous winner of this race and because the return to this sort of trip is in her favour. She has a likeable, genuine profile and her Comment Shaper notes are solid enough. She should stay on.

But the problem is that her best recent form does not quite match Panic Attack’s, and HRB has her only fourth on the master rating. In a race this small, that is not ideal. She is more likely to run her race than blow out, but she may simply lack the gear change if this turns tactical.

Ruby Island

She is Rank 2 on HRB, so by strict ratings discipline she has to be mentioned as the saver-type alternative. But this is where the reassessment matters.

Her chase form has come mainly in lesser races at shorter trips, and Timeform is blunt that she needs to prove her stamina and has a stiff task at this grade. The return of cheekpieces is an equipment change, but not one that screams major improvement. In a stronger-run race she might pick off tired horses, but in this likely steady tactical setup she looks vulnerable on class.

So while the HRB position says she is the only meaningful numerical alternative, the rest of the evidence does not really back that up. She is a place player at best.

Verdict

Everything points back to Panic Attack. She is the Rank 1 HRB horse, the clear class act, the Timeform pick, and the expected pace setup is not against her. In a race with no obvious pace pressure, she should get a clean tactical run and have too much quality.

Selection: Panic Attack

Self-critique

The case is strong, but not flawless. The obvious risk is recency after the Aintree fall. If that has left any mark, or if this becomes a messy stop-start tactical race where she is less fluent than usual, then Shecouldbeanything is the one most likely to capitalise. Apple Away is the solid each-way type in normal betting terms, but in a four-runner win-only setup she looks more a danger to the forecast than the win.

Confidence

Strong.