7.18 Gowran Park – Thomastown Handicap (0-60), 7f

This is not a race to get cute with. The numbers say the winner is most likely to come from the top two on HRB TimeWise Master, and that is exactly where the focus should be.

The shape of the race

Comment Shaper and Timeform are broadly aligned: there is no obvious front runner, early pressure looks only moderate, and Timeform calls it a weak pace. That matters.

At Gowran over 7f on soft to heavy, tactical position is important, and Timeform also notes the draw strongly favours low. In a race lacking a natural leader, those drawn low and able to sit handy without doing too much are at an advantage.

That immediately brings the top of the HRB list into play:

Kitty Bear – HRB Rank 1

Zabriskie Point – HRB Rank 2


That is the correct starting point.

The main contenders

Kitty Bear

She is the HRB top-rated horse, and that matters most. Historically, Rank 1 is where the strongest strike rate sits, and this mare also looks well positioned for the likely race setup.

Her positives are obvious:

Drawn 1, which is ideal given the stated low-draw bias.

Comment Shaper has her as TC with high confidence, which is exactly the sort of run style that can be effective in a steadily run race.

She is consistent enough at this level.

She was not disgraced at Leopardstown last week and had been running well at Dundalk before that.


The negative is equally obvious:

Zabriskie Point beat her at Leopardstown seven days ago.

She has only one win from 21 starts, so she is not bombproof from a win perspective.


Still, in this exact race shape, from this draw, with HRB putting her clear top, she has a very fair chance of getting first run on some of the others.

Zabriskie Point

He is the obvious danger and the only meaningful alternative on the HRB structure.

Reasons to like him:

Best recent piece of form in the race with that Leopardstown third.

Timeform and Spotlight both point to him as the one to beat.

He drops into a weak enough contest and still looks reasonably treated despite the penalty.

Drawn 2, so he also benefits from the low-draw edge.


But there are a couple of reasons not to just accept him blindly at the likely price:

Comment Shaper flags him as PS / slowly away type, and in a race where there may not be much pace to come back, that is not ideal.

Timeform explicitly says a steadily run race may be at the expense of Zephron, but the same logic can also slightly blunt horses who do their best work off a stronger pace.

He is carrying more weight and is now 6lb wrong in a 0-60 after his recent effort.


He is the class angle, but not a certainty.

Hell Left Loose

He is the one from outside the top two who makes some sense, but only as a secondary threat.

Positives:

Recent Gowran form is solid.

Timeform says the likely steady pace will assist him.

He is another with a good draw and a workable tactical position.


Negatives:

He is only HRB Rank 3, and your own framework says to be cautious from there unless there is strong support.

He is now a 10yo, and while still capable, he is not the one I want to put ahead of the top two.


He is a place player and a danger, but not my first choice to win.

Miss Americana

She is easy to like on the surface.

Strong late-finisher profile from Comment Shaper.

Went very close here two starts ago.

Light weight.


But there are concerns:

Draw 12 is awkward in a race where low looks a plus.

A weakly run race is not ideal for a horse whose best asset is finishing late.

She is only fourth on HRB.


She is respected, but more for minor honours unless the race unfolds better than expected for closers.

Others

Majestic King is interesting on handicap debut for Denis Hogan, but this asks for a leap of faith and he is only HRB Rank 6. Market check horse, not the likeliest winner.

Zephron has blinkers back on, but both race setup and recent form leave him with plenty to prove.

Rodeeve has first-time cheekpieces and has changed yards since last season, but nothing in the form says she is ready to strike.

Kayamite, Half Nutz, Secret Magician, Rock Etoile, Gobi Star, Uncle Albert, Manhattan Dandy all need too much to fall right.


Past-race angle

Recent winners of this race have tended to be younger types, with the last five winners all aged 4 to 7, and the market has generally had a decent grip on it. This does not look like the kind of renewal where a wild outsider is the percentage call.

That again pushes the race back towards the top end of HRB and the obvious recent form horses.

Equipment and trainer notes

Rodeeve: first-time cheekpieces, and previously switched from Timothy Doyle to Michael J Browne.

Zephron: blinkers back on.

Zabriskie Point: runs in headgear again.

Hell Left Loose: blinkers retained.

Kayamite: additional aids in place, but the form still does not back her.


None of those changes look strong enough to knock the main pair off top spot.

Verdict

The discipline here is to stay with the HRB top two.

Zabriskie Point has the strongest recent piece of form and is the obvious threat, but Kitty Bear is the HRB Rank 1, has the best draw in the race, and her tracked-leader style looks made for a contest where there may be no real pace and where getting first run could be everything.

Selection: KITTY BEAR

She is the one most likely to get the right trip in the right place at the right time.

Main danger

Zabriskie Point

Self-critique and reassessment

The obvious objection is simple: Zabriskie Point finished ahead of Kitty Bear at Leopardstown last week, and both Spotlight and Timeform prefer him. On pure recent form, he probably is the most likely horse.

But this is where the reassessment still comes back to Kitty Bear:

HRB says she is Rank 1, and that is the strongest historical slot.

She has stall 1 in a race where low is favoured.

Her run style is better suited than Zabriskie Point’s if this turns tactical.

Zabriskie Point’s tendency to be slowly away is a real issue in a race lacking pace.


So after checking it again, I am still with Kitty Bear, though only narrowly.

Confidence

Medium