The Highland National at Perth looks a typically gruelling staying handicap on paper, but the data suggests it may not unfold that way. Comment Shaper highlights a lack of a true front-runner, pointing towards a steadily run race. That immediately shifts the focus from pure stamina to tactical positioning, a key factor often overlooked in these marathon contests.

From an HRB TimeWise Master perspective, this race should be centred around FEVER DREAM, the clear Rank 1 and well clear on total ratings. His latest win at Warwick marked a career-best and, crucially, he arrives as a horse still progressing. Christian Williams’ yard does well with staying chasers, and this step up in trip looks a logical move rather than a gamble.

The main concern is pace. In a slowly run race, hold-up performers can get caught flat-footed, and FEVER DREAM is not guaranteed a perfect setup. That said, he has shown enough tactical flexibility in the past to sit closer if needed, and class often tells in the closing stages regardless.

BUSTY BOY, the Rank 2, is the obvious alternative. Second in this race last year and consistently hitting the frame, he brings solid course form and a reliable profile. However, his tendency to find one too good tempers enthusiasm.

Of the rest, EL GRANJERO makes some appeal given the expected race shape, likely to race handily and avoid traffic issues.

In the end, the ratings, profile and progression all point to one horse. FEVER DREAM is the percentage call.

Verdict: FEVER DREAM (Medium strength)