The 2.40 at Perth shapes up to be a proper staying handicap where the race setup is likely to be decisive. Comment Shaper points to a strongly run contest with multiple front runners and prominent racers ensuring a solid gallop. With a high collapse risk, this should play into the hands of those ridden patiently.

From a ratings perspective, the focus has to start with Roaring Conquest, who tops the HRB TimeWise Master figures. That alone is a major positive given the clear edge held by Rank 1 runners in races like this. More importantly, his run style aligns perfectly with the expected pace scenario. He is typically held up and finishes strongly — exactly the type you want when others have gone too hard up front.

His recent form doesn’t scream winner at first glance, but it’s been achieved in stronger races than this. Dropping in class and stepping up in trip both look like positives, and with Sean Bowen booked for a yard that does well at Perth, the pieces are in place.

Jupiter Des Mottes is the obvious danger as the Rank 2 horse. He’s progressive and arrives off a win, but there’s a slight concern he could get caught closer to the pace than ideal in this setup.

There are others with chances, but most either lack the ratings strength or the ideal run style for how this race is likely to unfold.

Verdict: Roaring Conquest to come through late and pick them off.

Strength of selection: Medium