The 3.10 at Perth presents a compact but informative Class 2 handicap chase, where the usual HRB principles point firmly towards the top of the market — and more specifically, the top of the ratings.

Tommys Oscar sets a clear standard on the TimeWise Master figures, sitting well clear of his rivals. That alone demands respect, but it’s the wider context that strengthens his case. He arrives here after holding his own in stronger company at Haydock and now drops into a slightly easier race. At this level, that edge in class often proves decisive.

The Comment Shaper data adds further confidence. This looks set to be run at a solid tempo, with a likely lone front runner in Classic Maestro. While that scenario can sometimes favour the leader, the overall pace pressure suggests it won’t be a free pass. Crucially, Tommys Oscar is identified as one of the strongest late finishers in the field — exactly the type you want when the race sets up for something coming off the pace.

Toothless is the obvious danger. He’s progressive, consistent, and represents a top yard, but his finishing profile raises a slight doubt in what could become a testing final stretch. He may travel well without quite delivering the knockout blow.

Others, including Inox Allen and Westerninthepark, have questions to answer based on recent form and finishing habits.

All things considered, this looks like a race where the percentages hold true. The top-rated runner, with the right run style and proven form, is the one to beat — and that points squarely at Tommys Oscar.