The 3.30 at Warwick, the KTDA Mares’ Challenger Series Final, looks a typically competitive Class 2 handicap on paper, but the data narrows the focus quickly. HRB TimeWise points firmly towards the top two, and history says that’s where the winner usually sits.

Crazierthandaisy heads the rankings and makes plenty of appeal. She was arguably unlucky not to win last time at Uttoxeter, travelling strongly before just being denied, and her overall profile suggests she’s well suited to a race of this nature. Importantly, Comment Shaper highlights a strongly run contest with no obvious front runner, which should favour hold-up performers. That plays directly into her strengths as a proven strong finisher.

The main threat is Service Minimum, second on the ratings and also fitting the likely race shape. She arrives off the back of a win and travels powerfully through her races. However, the handicapper has reacted with an 11lb rise, and this represents a significant step up in class. That leaves her with something to prove under these tougher conditions.

Of the remainder, Rockola Vogue is interesting as another strong closer, but her mark looks stiff and she may find one or two better treated. Others, including last year’s winner Greyval, have questions to answer either on recent form or tactical setup.

In a race likely to be decided late, siding with the top-rated finisher makes most sense. Crazierthandaisy looks the one to deliver.