The 4.10 at Perth looks the sort of handicap where punters can easily get dragged towards the obvious pair at the head of the market, but the race shape makes this far more interesting than a straight ratings exercise.

On pure HRB TimeWise figures, Mister Ursus and Fouroneohfever are the standout pair and, in most races of this type, that is exactly where you should focus. Rank 1 and Rank 2 produce the bulk of winners, and both arrive here with progressive profiles. Mister Ursus is the top-rated horse and comes here after an easy maiden success, while Fouroneohfever has solid recent form and looks the type to keep improving.

The problem is the likely pace. Comment Shaper points to a very strong early shape, with several front runners and prominent racers expected to force it. That creates a genuine risk of the race falling apart late on, especially over this sharp two miles on good ground where they can go hard from the outset.

That scenario brings Pure Gold right into the argument. She is a proven course-and-distance winner, her run style is rock solid, and she has been flagged as one of the field’s strongest late finishers. In a race where others may do too much too soon, she looks the one most likely to be staying on when it matters.

The obvious concern is fitness after an absence, and that stops this being a maximum-confidence play. Still, the combination of proven Perth form and a race likely to suit gives Pure Gold real appeal at the prices.

Selection: Pure Gold (Each Way)
Confidence: Medium