The 4.40 at Perth may look a competitive 16-runner handicap on paper, but the data suggests a far simpler race to solve. The HRB TimeWise Master ratings dominate the analysis, and as so often, the focus is firmly on the top two.

Shadowfax Of Rohan sits clear at Rank 1, and that position carries serious weight given the historical strike rate. More importantly, his recent profile is rock solid. Since switching to fences, he has returned figures of 1-2-1, showing clear progression. Crucially, he reverts to hurdles off the same mark (86) as his last winning run. In a weak Class 5, that makes him very well treated if transferring that improved form back over timber.

The race shape adds a layer of intrigue. There are two identified front runners, including Shadowfax, and the projected early pressure is strong. However, the overall collapse risk is low, which tempers concerns about a pace burn-up. If he settles into a rhythm, he may simply prove too good for this level.

Beat The Retreat (Rank 2) is the obvious danger. He is consistent, tactically versatile, and arrives here off two wins from his last three starts. His prominent style should give him the ideal stalking position just off the speed. The slight concern is the drop back to 2m, which may not play fully to his strengths.

Bunker Bay (Rank 3) is respected as a strong finisher, but remains winless over hurdles and may again find one too good.

In summary, the race revolves around the top of the ratings, and Shadowfax Of Rohan looks the most likely winner—provided the pace doesn’t undo him late on.