The 5.02 at Warwick looks competitive on the surface, but a disciplined read of the HRB ratings and race shape narrows the focus considerably.

Two To Tango heads the TimeWise Master ratings and that’s a position that demands respect, given the strong historical strike rate of rank 1 runners. He arrives here off the back of a solid win at Stratford, where first-time cheekpieces appeared to unlock improvement. A 4lb rise looks fair rather than punitive, and his overall profile suggests there’s more to come over fences.

The race shape adds further weight to his claims. Comment Shaper points towards a strongly run contest with early pressure and only a weak front-runner, which should set things up for those finishing late. Two To Tango is flagged as a strong late finisher, and that could prove decisive in the closing stages.

Roger Rarebit, second on ratings, is the obvious alternative. He’s consistent, handles the track, and should give his running again. However, he does have a tendency to find less off the bridle and may be vulnerable late on given the projected pace scenario.

Market leader Claim Du Brizais is interesting but looks opposable. Despite strong connections and a suitable run style, she sits outside the top tier on ratings and remains winless over fences.

Others, including Move With The Beat, bring solid recent form but may struggle to see things out as strongly in a race likely to be run at a good tempo.

All things considered, this sets up ideally for Two To Tango, who looks the most likely winner if the race unfolds as expected.

Verdict: STRONG