6.28 Kilbeggan – Live To Laugh can complete the hat-trick

This staying handicap looks set up for a horse that can travel just behind the speed and finish off properly, and Live To Laugh makes most appeal.

The Comment Shaper view is important here. There are two front runners, the early pressure is strong, and the collapse risk is high. In races like this, I want to be with a horse that is not part of the pace battle but is still close enough to strike when the leaders begin to empty. Live To Laugh fits that well. He is usually ridden handily enough without forcing it, and his profile suggests he can keep finding off the bridle.

The HRB TimeWise ratings also point firmly his way. He is ranked number one, and that is the angle I always want to start with in this type of race. Historically, the top-rated horse is far more likely to win than those lower down the list. Midleton Rare, ranked second, is the obvious saver and the main danger after winning at Bellewstown, while Sean Mc is the next one in if building on his Wexford success.

Timeform also sides with Live To Laugh, and that adds weight. His recent chase wins suggest he is a horse in peak form, and although he is back over hurdles, he is coming here thriving rather than trying to revive his form.

There are dangers, especially if the race becomes a total war of attrition, but the percentages still point to Live To Laugh.

Selection: Live To Laugh
Confidence: Medium