Sandown’s 1.45 looks the sort of race where the market may overvalue obvious form and undervalue how the contest is likely to unfold. Comment Shaper points to a very strong pace, with five front-runners, plenty of prominent racers and a high collapse risk. In plain terms, they could go far too hard early, which should suit a horse able to travel, hold a position and finish off late.

With that in mind, Minella Yoga makes the most appeal. He sits at the top of the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and that matters because the top-ranked horse is historically where the strongest win strike-rate lies. He also brings the right profile for a race like this. Paul Nicholls’ four-year-old is a strong traveller, jumps soundly and arrives here after a smooth Taunton win that suggested there is more to come. Nicholls has also done well in this race before, which adds another positive.

The obvious alternative is Cosmic Connection, the HRB rank-two horse and one whose run style could be well suited if the leaders overcook it. He looks the main danger rather than the bet. Wilstar is respected as a late-finishing type, but from a rankings point of view he sits just below the two that matter most.

There are enough pace angles in here to make life difficult for those wanting the lead, including Kocktail Bleu, Desertmore News and Dutch Corner. That is why I am siding with a horse who should get a strong tow into the race without needing to force it.

Selection: Minella Yoga
Confidence: Medium