2.30 Navan – Charles Darwin sets the standard

This Listed sprint looks a good opportunity for Charles Darwin to make a winning return, and the numbers point firmly in his direction.

From an HRB TimeWise Master angle, he is the one to focus on. He sits clear Rank 1 on 479.1, well ahead of Kindergarten on 390.0, and that matters because the top two in these ratings produce the bulk of winners. In a race like this, there is no need to get clever and start fishing too far down the list.

Charles Darwin also brings the best form into the race. His Norfolk Stakes win at Royal Ascot reads comfortably the strongest piece of juvenile form on offer, and Timeform’s view is blunt enough: he sets a clear standard. Aidan O’Brien has also won two of the last five runnings, while Ryan Moore’s record on favourites only adds to the confidence.

The one note of caution comes from Comment Shaper. This looks a strong pace race, with three front runners identified and a high collapse risk. Charles Darwin is one of those likely pace forces, so there is a chance he is taken on earlier than ideal. Even so, he is not just a tearaway; his profile also shows he can stay on strongly, which makes him less vulnerable than a pure speedball.

Of the rest, Kindergarten is the obvious danger as the HRB Rank 2 horse and an unbeaten C&D winner. Chicago Call could be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.

The selection is Charles Darwin.

Verdict: Strong