Nottingham 5.25 – Codiak the one to beat, but no certainty

This six-runner handicap revolves around the top of the HRB ratings, and historically that’s where you want to be. Codiak (Rank 1) and Just An Hour (Rank 2) dominate the figures, with a clear gap to the rest, so the winner is very likely to come from that pair.

The race shape adds an interesting layer. Comment Shaper points to a weakly run contest with just one front runner, and no strong pace pressure. That usually turns things tactical, favouring those who can sit handy rather than rely on a strong late surge. It’s a notable negative for the likes of Rock N Roll Pinkie and Imperial Sovereign, both of whom do their best work late.

That scenario plays nicely into Codiak’s hands. He’s not just the top-rated runner, but also tactically versatile, having raced in a variety of positions. His recent form is solid, and the step up to 1m6f looks a logical move for a progressive 4yo. If he gets a handy position off a modest pace, he’ll take some passing.

Just An Hour is the obvious danger. He’s well treated and proven at the trip, and Timeform suggest the setup could suit. However, he’s more dependent on how the race unfolds and may need things to fall right in a steadily run affair.

In truth, this looks a fairly straightforward ratings race with a slight tactical bias. Codiak is the percentage call, but not without risk given the new trip.

Selection: Codiak (IRE)
Confidence: Medium