The 6.45 at Musselburgh looks a typically tight 5f handicap on the surface, but the combination of HRB ratings and Comment Shaper helps cut through the noise.

At the top of the TimeWise Master ratings sits I’m Next, and while rank 1 runners demand serious respect, this looks a vulnerable favourite. He comes here just three days after a hard-fought win at Beverley and now has to defy a penalty. More importantly, the Comment Shaper flags a tendency to weaken late, which is a concern given the projected race shape. He’s likely to get an uncontested lead, but it’s described as a weak one, and with pressure building behind, this may not fall his way.

That brings us to Montezuma, the rank 2 horse and the one that makes most appeal. He won over course and distance just 14 days ago in a big-field handicap, shaping like a horse who had more in hand than the margin suggests. Despite a 7lb rise, he remains of strong interest, particularly as Comment Shaper highlights him as a strong late finisher — exactly the type suited to a race where the pace could collapse late on.

Others like Jer Batt and Ziggys Triton have claims as closers, but they lack the same balance of current form and ratings position.

In a race likely to be set up for a finisher, Montezuma looks the one to be delivered late and strike.

Selection: Montezuma
Confidence: Medium-Strong