Moon Over The Sea sets the standard at Bath

This 2.00 at Bath looks the sort of low-grade handicap where it pays to keep things simple. The HRB TimeWise Master figures point firmly towards Moon Over The Sea, and in these races that matters. He is a clear Rank 1, with a healthy gap back to Marinakis in second, and that is the strongest starting point when most winners come from the top two in the ratings.

The pace angle backs him up. Comment Shaper suggests Endofastorm is the lone likely front runner, but not a strong one, and there are enough prominent racers in behind to make this more of a test than a simple crawl. That should suit a horse who can be delivered late, and Moon Over The Sea is one of the standout finishers in the field.

He arrives in fair nick after a pair of placed efforts on the all-weather, and while most of his wins have come off turf, he does at least have Bath form and has shown he can still be competitive from this mark. In a race full of exposed, inconsistent types, that is enough to make him the percentage call.

Marinakis is the obvious danger. He is Rank 2 on HRB, has a strong finishing profile, and the first-time hood could help. The trainer switch adds a bit of intrigue, but also a touch of uncertainty. Bohemian Breeze has a Timeform case and is respected, though he sits only third on HRB.

The selection is Moon Over The Sea. He is not bombproof, but he is the most likely winner.

Verdict: Medium strength.