The 4.00 at Bath looks a fairly ordinary Class 5 sprint on paper, but the data gives us a much clearer angle than you might expect.

Starting with the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, the key point is discipline. The majority of winners come from the top two ranked horses, and here that leaves us with The Thames Boatman (Rank 1) and Moe’s Legacy (Rank 2). Everything else needs to be exceptional to get involved — and nothing in this field makes that case convincingly.

The race shape is particularly interesting. Comment Shaper highlights a likely lone front-runner in So Smart, with low overall pace pressure. In many Bath sprints that would be a major advantage, but there’s a problem: So Smart has a consistent habit of travelling well early and then weakening late. A soft lead only helps if the horse can sustain it — and his profile suggests he won’t.

This shifts the focus firmly onto the strong finishers, and there are a few in here. However, not all strong closers are equal. Toolatetonegotiate fits the shape but remains winless on turf, while Moe’s Legacy brings course form and is clearly a danger if bouncing back from a below-par effort last time.

The one that brings it all together is The Thames Boatman. Top-rated, proven on fast ground, and notably second in this very race last year, he has been knocking on the door and shaping better than bare results suggest — including trading much shorter in-running last time. His running style should allow him to sit just off the pace and strike late, which looks ideal given how this race is likely to unfold.

There is a small risk that the leader gets loose, but on balance, the profile points one way.

Selection: The Thames Boatman — Strength: Strong