The 2.12 at Yarmouth looks a straightforward six-runner apprentice handicap on the surface, but the data paints a more nuanced picture. As ever, starting with the HRB TimeWise ratings gives us a solid foundation. Me Tarzan narrowly tops the list as Rank 1, with Diamont Katie close behind in Rank 2. Historically, that’s where the winner comes from, and it’s hard to build a case outside that pair.

The race shape is particularly interesting. Comment Shaper identifies Me Tarzan as the sole front runner in a race lacking early pace. In small-field scenarios like this, especially over 7f at Yarmouth, an uncontested lead can be a major advantage. However, there’s a caveat — Me Tarzan is not a strong front runner and has a tendency to weaken late. That tempers confidence slightly, even if he does get things his own way up front.

Diamont Katie brings a very different profile. She arrives here off the back of a dominant win at Pontefract, her first run after a wind operation, and the manner of that success suggests there’s more to come. A 5lb penalty may not be enough to stop her, and she’s clearly the strongest finisher in the field based on recent comment data. The concern is tactical — in a slowly run race, she may not get the pace she ideally wants.

Mr Ubiquitous and Noble Guest have their merits, but both look slightly compromised by the expected race setup and sit below the top two on ratings.

In the end, this comes down to tactics versus finishing power. Me Tarzan could pinch it from the front, but Diamont Katie is the one arriving with momentum.

Verdict: Me Tarzan just gets the nod, but only narrowly. Strength: Medium.