3.15 Epsom – City & Suburban Handicap Preview

This looks a tactical little handicap, and the pace map is the starting point. Comment Shaper shows no obvious front-runner, with only moderate early pressure and a low collapse risk. That normally favours horses able to sit handy rather than those needing a strong gallop to aim at.

The HRB TimeWise Master ratings point first to Sallaal, who is ranked number one. That is important, because these ratings have a strong bias towards the top two. Sallaal has the class angle, is lightly raced, and his Sandown Listed third reads well. The concern is tactical: he can be keen and may be ridden mid-division, which is not ideal if this turns into a steadily run Epsom race.

Rathgar is ranked second and makes more sense as the overall selection. He was a good second in this race last year, returns in form after winning at Newbury, and his prominent style should put him in the right place. He may not have Sallaal’s potential upside, but he has fewer questions for this specific setup.

Dangerman is respected, especially as Timeform suggest a slowly run race should suit him. William Buick rides and the Gosden yard is going well early season. However, his HRB ranking is only sixth, which is a major negative given how often winners come from the top two rated runners.

Aurel is interesting and unexposed, but the long absence tempers enthusiasm. Parlando has a strong late finish, but the likely pace scenario works against him.

The past winners also suggest this race often goes to a horse with a solid handicap profile rather than a wild improver.

Selection: Rathgar
Saver: Sallaal

Rathgar looks the most reliable blend of rating, race shape, course form and current fitness.

Strength: Medium.