3.40 Punchestown – Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle

This is a deep, competitive handicap, but the starting point has to be Murcia, who comes out clear top on the HRB TimeWise Master ratings. That is a major positive, as Rank 1 is historically the strongest position to work from and should not be ignored lightly.

The race shape is interesting. Comment Shaper points to a very strong pace, with two likely front runners and a high collapse risk. That makes life harder for the pace angles, especially Jet To Monte Carlo and Touch Me Not, who may find themselves softened up early. In this sort of set-up, I want a horse who can travel, hold position and finish.

Murcia fits that better than most. He had little go right in the County Hurdle and then ran a respectable fifth behind Kalix Delabarriere at Fairyhouse. That was not a bad effort, and he now gets Paul Townend, which is another clear positive. He is also fitted with a tongue-tie, and while he has sometimes looked vulnerable late, this race may be run to suit if he can sit off the speed rather than get dragged into the battle.

Kalix Delabarriere is the obvious danger. Timeform make him their pick after his Fairyhouse win, and the race shape could suit him. However, he is 10 lb higher now and only fourth on HRB, so he is passed over for win purposes.

Were Red And Blue is the HRB Rank 2 and deserves respect. He is consistent, first-time cheekpieces could help, and he looks the saver at a price. Khrisma has potential but is lower down the HRB list than ideal.

After reassessing, Murcia is not a certainty, but he is the most solid blend of ratings, form and rider booking.

Selection: Murcia
Main danger: Kalix Delabarriere
Saver: Were Red And Blue
Confidence: Medium