The 4.30 at Bath is a tight little Class 4 handicap, but the data points us in a very clear direction if you’re willing to trust it.

Starting with the HRB TimeWise ratings, this is a textbook setup. Candonomore sits top ranked and, crucially, comes here in peak form. Two recent seconds, including a nose defeat at Yarmouth, suggest he’s ready to strike. Historically, Rank 1 dominates these races, and there’s nothing in his profile to oppose. He’s thriving for his new yard, handles quick ground, and his running style gives him options in what looks a tactically interesting race.

The Comment Shaper adds another layer. There’s a strong pace scenario expected, with two front runners likely to go forward. That should ensure an honest gallop, bringing stamina and finishing ability into play. Candonomore fits that perfectly, regularly finishing his races strongly and showing the ability to track or sit just off the pace.

The obvious alternative on ratings is Eupator, but he’s easy to oppose. His best form has come on the all-weather, and his tendency to weaken late doesn’t inspire confidence in a race where pressure is likely. He looks more a pace casualty than a winner.

Special Ghaiyyath is more interesting. A likely front runner, he could benefit if the race steadies, and Timeform notes that prominent racers are often favoured here. If he gets an uncontested lead, he’s the one who could upset the favourite.

That said, everything points back to Candonomore. He has the form, the figures, and the profile for the race.

Selection: Candonomore (FR)
Strength: Strong