The 4.58 at Epsom looks a fairly typical Class 4 handicap on paper, but the combination of HRB ratings and Comment Shaper gives this a much clearer angle than first meets the eye.

Starting with the race shape, there is a glaring absence of a natural front runner. Comment Shaper flags zero confirmed pace setters and only two prominent racers, pointing towards a steadily run contest. With a low collapse risk, this immediately puts the emphasis on tactical positioning rather than raw finishing power. In simple terms, those ridden cold may struggle to land a blow.

That brings us straight to the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, where Mr Baloo sits top ranked. This is significant. Rank 1 runners historically produce the highest strike rate, and in races like this, that edge matters. He comes here off the back of a recent win at Lingfield, with cheekpieces seemingly unlocking improvement, and crucially, he has the tactical speed to sit handy in a race lacking pace. That could prove decisive.

The obvious danger on figures is Kaleido, the only runner close enough in the ratings to consider seriously. He is unexposed and now with David O’Meara after a gelding operation, which opens the door to improvement. However, the long absence and likely hold-up tactics are not ideal given how this race is expected to unfold.

Tribal Rhythm will be popular, especially as last year’s winner, but he sits outside the top two in the ratings and is another who relies on a strong pace to bring his finishing kick into play. The setup looks against him.

In a race where positioning could trump everything, Mr Baloo holds the strongest overall profile.

Verdict: Mr Baloo (IRE)
Strength: Medium