The 5.10 at Southwell is a typical Class 6 sprint on paper, but the data gives us a surprisingly clear angle if you’re prepared to trust it.

The first thing to note is the race shape. Comment Shaper highlights no obvious front runner, yet there is still strong early pressure expected from a cluster of prominent racers. That often creates a messy, inefficient pace — and at Southwell over 6f, that scenario usually favours horses that sit just off the speed and finish late rather than those forcing it.

That brings us neatly to the ratings.

Mount Ruapehu sits firmly at the top of the HRB TimeWise rankings and, importantly, there is a healthy gap back to the rest. Historically, that Rank 1 position is where the majority of winners come from, and this looks a textbook example. He’s already a dual course-and-distance winner this year, and his latest run at Wolverhampton suggests he remains in form. From a run style perspective, he’s ideal — typically tracking the pace and finishing strongly, which aligns perfectly with how this race is likely to unfold.

Dr Ali, the Rank 2, is the obvious alternative and comes here in winning form. However, his tendency to start slowly and adopt inconsistent early positions is a concern in a race where track position could be crucial.

Of the remainder, South Shore and East Tyrone both appeal as late finishers, but neither has the same overall profile or reliability as the selection.

In truth, this isn’t a race to overcomplicate. The ratings, the pace setup, and recent course form all point in the same direction.

Mount Ruapehu is the one to beat.

Verdict: Strong