Mission Command looks the one to profit in Musselburgh closer

The 3.50 at Musselburgh is a handicap where the obvious ratings angle and the likely race shape do not point to exactly the same horse, and that often creates the best betting opportunity.

On HRB TimeWise Master, Giorgio M sits at the top of the pile and that deserves plenty of respect. Rank 1 horses are historically the strongest place to start, with rank 2 usually the only serious alternative. In that regard, Criminal Shore also has to enter calculations, especially as he is consistent enough and should get a fair tow into the race. The problem is that neither looks bombproof once the likely pace is taken into account.

Comment Shaper suggests this could be run at a strong clip, with two front runners and two prominent racers in the field. That creates the possibility of the race being set up for something ridden with more patience. Musselburgh can favour those racing handily, but if the lead is contested, the final furlong can become a different test altogether.

That is where Mission Command makes most appeal. He is only third on the TimeWise list, so under normal circumstances I would be reluctant to put him above the top two. However, he has the right support from the race setup. He is a hold-up horse, Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong late finisher, and his recent form is solid. He has hit the frame on his last three starts and arrives here after another creditable run over 7f on good ground.

There is a risk that I am reading too much into the pace, because Giorgio M could still dominate if he gets into a smooth rhythm from stall 2. But with pressure likely up front, Mission Command looks the one most likely to be finishing best of all.

Selection: Mission Command
Confidence: Medium