The 4.05 at Southwell is a typical Class 5 fillies’ handicap on the surface, but a closer look at the race dynamics reveals a far more tactical affair than usual.

The Comment Shaper points towards a steady to moderately run race with a single front runner, and that is often decisive around here. Southwell’s mile tends to favour those on or near the pace when things aren’t strongly run, and this looks a scenario where positioning could easily outweigh raw ability.

On pure form, Wondrous Light sets the standard. She returned from a break with a smooth success at Beverley and is clearly progressing. Timeform’s view that she remains well treated is hard to argue with, and she brings the strongest recent piece of form into the race. However, she is typically ridden with patience and arrives here as a hold-up performer in a race lacking pace pressure. That is far from ideal and makes her vulnerable at short odds.

The more interesting angle lies with Welljudged. From a top yard that boasts an excellent strike rate at this track, she looks poised to get a soft, uncontested lead. Her recent run over 7f suggested the trip was on the sharp side, and stepping back up to a mile should suit much better. If allowed to dictate, she could control the tempo and prove very difficult to peg back.

Donna Nook is another who should be handy and is eased in grade, but her long-standing inability to get her head in front tempers enthusiasm.

In a race where the market may focus on upside and recent winners, the tactical setup is king. Welljudged has that in her favour and makes the most appeal.

Selection: Welljudged
Strength: Medium