5.25 Punchestown – Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase Blog

The 5.25 at Punchestown is a deep and competitive Grade 3 handicap chase, but this is not a race where I want to get too clever. The HRB TimeWise Master ratings point strongly towards King Alexander, and with Rank 1 horses historically holding the best strike-rate, he has to be the starting point.

King Alexander comes out clear top on HRB with a total of 408.2, some way ahead of Jesse Evans in second. That gap matters. He also brings the most attractive profile: lightly raced over fences, still open to improvement, and already good enough to finish a solid fourth in a strong Cheltenham Festival handicap. That form looks very relevant here.

The race shape adds a small note of caution. Comment Shaper suggests a strong overall pace scenario, with only one likely front-runner and a moderate collapse risk. Timeform also warns that a very strong pace may not be ideal for King Alexander. That said, he is not a one-dimensional pace horse, and his finishing comments suggest he can still stay on when asked.

Jesse Evans is respected as the HRB Rank 2 runner and looks the logical saver. He is consistent, tracks the pace well, and has a strong finishing profile. The concern is his 206-day break and the fact he is a 10-year-old with less obvious upside.

Conyers Hill is interesting from a pace angle and could be running on late, but as HRB Rank 5 he needs more to fall right. Dee Capo is solid but not compelling enough to replace the top two.

The conclusion is straightforward: King Alexander has the class, rating edge, trainer, jockey and progressive chase profile to take this.

Selection: King Alexander
Saver: Jesse Evans
Strength: Strong