The 2.05 at Yarmouth is a typical low-grade handicap, but one where the data gives us a fairly tight handle on the likely outcome. In races like this, it pays to stay disciplined, and the HRB TimeWise rankings point firmly towards the top two — Merapi and Hibernate — as the key players.

Starting with the race shape, Comment Shaper suggests a solid tempo with two front runners likely to apply pressure. However, Timeform leans towards a steadier pace scenario. That contrast is crucial. If things get tactical, it could favour those on or near the lead; if the pressure builds, it brings the stronger finishers into play.

Hibernate fits the former mould. He returned to form with a solid second at Leicester and looks well positioned to dictate or sit prominently. The drop back in trip is no issue, and the booking of a claimer adds further appeal. If allowed to control the race, he could prove difficult to peg back.

However, the percentage call still sits with Merapi, who tops the HRB ratings and arrives off a strong course effort when narrowly denied over a mile here. She shapes as though this step up in trip will suit, and her Comment Shaper profile marks her down as one of the strongest late finishers in the field. In a race where there is at least some expectation of pace pressure, that finishing ability becomes a decisive asset.

The concern, of course, is her tendency to find one too good, but in this company she may not get a better opportunity. The gap in ratings and her recent trajectory suggest she is ready to strike.

In summary, this looks a straight fight between the top two, and siding with proven finishing strength gives Merapi the edge.

Selection: Merapi — Strength: Medium