4.15 Punchestown – Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle Blog

This is a proper cavalry charge and the race shape looks crucial. Comment Shaper is flagging a very strong pace, with four likely front runners and a high collapse risk. In simple terms, they may go too hard early, which should bring the closers into play.

That immediately points towards The Lovely Man. He tops the HRB TimeWise Master ratings on 371.7, and that matters. Rank 1 horses have a strong historical edge, so he deserves maximum respect before we even get into the race set-up.

His profile fits this contest well. He is usually held up, finishes strongly, stays well, and comes here in excellent form after winning three of his last four starts. He has been mixing hurdles and fences, but his recent hurdle win at Gowran reads well and he looks potentially well treated back in this sphere.

The one niggle is Timeform’s comment that he may want even more of a test. However, with so much pace on, this 2m7½f handicap could ride like a proper staying race. That should suit him far more than the obvious pace horses.

Seaniecon is the obvious danger. He is HRB Rank 2, lightly raced, improving and now wears first-time cheekpieces. He could easily have more to offer on handicap debut, but he lacks the battle-hardened profile of the selection.

Karl Des Tourelles is respected, especially after his good Martin Pipe run, but HRB only has him ranked seventh, which is enough to put me off making him the main pick. Daydream Nation is progressive, but his likely front-running style is a worry in this set-up.

For me, this race should fall apart late, and The Lovely Man looks the one best equipped to take advantage.

Selection: The Lovely Man
Danger: Seaniecon
Strength: Medium