4.50 Punchestown – Frontline Security Handicap Chase

This is a fiercely competitive 20-runner listed handicap chase, but the race shape gives us a clear angle. HRB Comment Shaper points to a strongly-run contest, with two confirmed front-runners, strong early pressure and a high collapse risk. That immediately makes me wary of those wanting to force the pace, especially Raffles Dolce Vita and Escapeandevade.

The starting point has to be Come Walk With Me, who tops the HRB TimeWise Master ratings. Rank 1 horses are historically the strongest place to begin, and he has plenty going for him. He arrives off a career-best Fairyhouse win, where he won a listed novice handicap by ten lengths. Timeform also notes that the runner-up has boosted the form since, so this does not look a fluke.

Tactically, he should be well placed. He is not dependent on leading, but he can sit close enough to avoid traffic before staying on. In a race where the leaders may go too hard, that could prove crucial.

Release The Beast, HRB Rank 2, is the obvious danger. He ran well when fourth in the Grand Annual and remains lightly raced over fences, but he looks more solid than progressive. Ballysax Hank, Rank 3, is also respected because he finishes strongly and should benefit if the race collapses late.

Timeform prefer Mclaurey, and the drop back in trip plus first-time tongue-tie are positives. However, he sits only eighth on HRB, which makes him hard to support as the main bet.

Last year’s winner Petit Tonnerre is interesting off just 1 lb higher, but his recent efforts are not convincing enough.

The selection is Come Walk With Me. He has the top HRB rating, progressive form, the right run style and a solid Timeform case.

Selection: Come Walk With Me
Danger: Release The Beast
Confidence: Medium