The 5.07 at Lingfield looks a fairly ordinary Class 6 on paper, but the data suggests it’s a race where discipline will be rewarded.

Starting with the Comment Shaper, there is no recognised front runner in the field. That immediately reduces the likelihood of a strongly run race and instead points towards a steadily run contest where positioning will be key. With three prominent racers and a large group of hold-up types, the pace is likely to be controlled rather than contested. Crucially, the collapse risk is low, so this is unlikely to set up for a dramatic late closer.

That brings us firmly onto the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, which should always anchor the analysis. Antiquity is ranked 1, and that alone carries significant weight given the historical strike rate of top-ranked runners. He ticks plenty of boxes beyond the raw numbers too. A previous course and distance winner, he arrives in consistent form and shaped well last time when finishing close up in a competitive field. Tactically, he’s versatile enough to sit wherever needed in what looks a messy pace setup.

My Boy Harry, the Rank 2 horse, is the only logical alternative on ratings. However, his recent form is uninspiring and he comes with more risk despite having the speed figures to feature. He’s difficult to trust as a win proposition.

There will be temptation elsewhere. Super Hit is the Timeform selection and now with a new trainer, while Mr Fustic and Secret Road both bring strong finishing profiles. However, all sit outside the top two ratings, which historically is a poor place to find winners in races like this.

In a race lacking a clear pace angle, siding with the most solid and reliable profile makes sense.

Antiquity is the selection.

Verdict: STRONG