5.25 Punchestown – Barberstown Castle Novice Chase

This may be a Grade 1 on paper, but the data points to a race that revolves almost entirely around one horse.

The Comment Shaper suggests a moderate pace with no obvious front runner, which often leads to a tactical affair in small fields. With a low collapse risk and strong finishing profiles across the field, this is likely to develop into a sprint from the last two fences. That scenario places a premium on class, positioning and clean jumping rather than raw stamina.

Step forward Kopek Des Bordes.

He sits firmly top of the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and that alone is a major positive given the historical strike rate of rank 1 runners. More importantly, his form backs it up. His Arkle second at Cheltenham reads like the standout piece of form in the race—arguably unlucky not to win after a late error. Prior to that, he cruised through a Navan maiden, and we already know he possesses elite ability having landed the Supreme last season.

Tactically, he looks bombproof. Comment Shaper has him as a consistent tracker with a strong late finish, ideal in a race lacking pace. Timeform also notes he should not be inconvenienced by how the race unfolds, which removes a key uncertainty.

The only realistic threat is Salvator Mundi, the clear rank 2. He has the engine and arrives with strong figures, but his tendency to race keenly is a concern in what could be a steadily run contest. If he doesn’t settle, he may compromise his finishing effort.

The remainder look a notch below at this level.

In truth, this is Kopek Des Bordes’ race to lose. If he jumps cleanly, his class should see him home.

Selection: Kopek Des Bordes – STRONG