The Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown looks, on paper, a deep and competitive Grade 1, but the data points us firmly in one direction.

Starting with the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, Teahupoo stands out as a clear Rank 1. That alone carries significant weight, given the historical strike rate of top-ranked runners in these races. There is then a notable drop to Honesty Policy in second, with Bob Olinger close behind, and the remainder some way off. In truth, this should be fought out between the top two on the figures.

The Comment Shaper adds an interesting tactical layer. There is no confirmed front runner, yet the race is still expected to be run with reasonable pressure. This creates the potential for a slightly messy, tactical affair rather than a true stamina test. In these scenarios, positioning and race sharpness often prove decisive.

That brings us neatly back to Teahupoo. A dual winner of this race, he arrives here off a below-par run at Cheltenham, but crucially now sports first-time blinkers. That is a significant move, suggesting connections are keen to ensure he is sharper and more involved tactically. Given his proven ability at the trip and at this track, he sets a very high standard.

Honesty Policy is the obvious danger. He remains unexposed at this level and the Timeform notes highlight further potential. However, he has already had opportunities in strongly run races this season and hasn’t quite delivered.

Bob Olinger, admirable as ever, will be staying on late but may find the race shape against him.

All things considered, this looks set up for a Teahupoo rebound.

Selection: Teahupoo
Strength: Strong