4.20 Ascot Blog — Artagnan Can Strike

The 4.20 Ascot is a competitive 17-runner 5f handicap, but the evidence points strongly towards Artagnan.

HRB TimeWise Master has him ranked number one, which is always the right place to start. The top two in this model are historically the key zone, and Artagnan is backed up by more than just the rating. Timeform also put him forward as the selection, noting his strong comeback second at Wolverhampton and the fact that the form has been boosted since.

The race looks likely to be run at a strong gallop. Comment Shaper flags a very strong pace and a high collapse risk, with two likely front-runners and plenty of prominent racers. That should make life difficult for those who need to force it. Artagnan is not a pure hold-up horse, but he has enough tactical speed to get a position and enough finishing strength to cope if the leaders come back.

Pixie Diva is the main danger. She is HRB Rank 2, has Ryan Moore booked, and the strong pace should suit. She was best of those ridden patiently at Yarmouth last time and looks a serious player.

Combustion is respected from HRB Rank 3 and arrives in excellent form, but most of his improvement has come on the all-weather. He still has to prove he can do the same on turf. Duran was second in this race last year and could run well again, but he sits lower on HRB and is more of a place contender.

There are too many pace angles for comfort among several rivals, and that helps narrow the race.

Selection: Artagnan

He has the best HRB rating, Timeform support, fitness, proven turf ability and the right profile for the likely race shape.

Confidence: Strong