5.25 Punchestown — QuinnBet Novice Handicap Chase

This is a deep novice handicap chase, but the shape of the race gives us a clear starting point. Comment Shaper makes this a very strong pace scenario, with two likely front-runners, plenty of prominent racers and a high collapse risk. That immediately makes me wary of anything that needs to force the issue.

The HRB TimeWise Master ratings put Funiculi Funicula on top with a total of 369.3, narrowly ahead of Noble Park on 368.1. That matters. The top two in these ratings are historically where most winners come from, and Rank 1 deserves strong respect unless there is a clear reason to oppose.

There is not enough here to oppose Funiculi Funicula. He is lightly raced over fences, won at Cork last time, and still looks open to improvement now sent handicapping. Paul Townend takes the ride, which is another obvious positive. His running style is not completely fixed, but he has shown enough versatility to suggest he does not need to get dragged into the early pace war.

Noble Park is the obvious danger. He jumps well, arrives in form and is only just behind on HRB. The concern is whether this big-field Punchestown test asks a different question to the smaller-field British races he has been winning.

Shuffle The Deck is tempting from a race-shape angle, as he finishes strongly and could benefit if they go too hard. However, his HRB ranking is too low to make him the main selection.

The pace setup puts me off the more forward-going types, especially Kiss Will, Port Joulain and You Oughta Know.

Selection: Funiculi Funicula
Saver: Noble Park
Confidence: Medium