The 6.40 at Punchestown, the Boodles Champion Hurdle, looks a Grade 1 in name but, on the numbers and profiles, it revolves almost entirely around one mare – Lossiemouth.
HRB’s TimeWise ratings have her miles clear as Rank 1 (566), and that matters. Historically, the top-ranked runner accounts for the bulk of winners, and in small-field championship races that bias becomes even stronger. The gap back to Wilful (Rank 2) is sizeable, and he’s climbing out of handicaps into elite company – a leap that rarely pays off in this race.
The Comment Shaper doesn’t offer an angle to oppose the favourite either. We’ve got a single, weak front runner and a strong overall shape, suggesting a well-run race without extreme pace pressure. Crucially, Lossiemouth is highlighted as a strong late finisher (⭐⭐⭐), so even if this develops into a test of finishing speed, it plays directly to her strengths rather than exposing a weakness.
Her profile is rock solid. A dominant Champion Hurdle winner at Cheltenham, 14 wins from 17 completions, and operating at a level the rest simply haven’t matched. Tactically, she’s versatile – able to sit prominent or track – which removes another potential vulnerability in a small field.
The dangers all come with caveats. William Munny has the talent but returns from a long absence. Golden Ace is consistent but lacks the same ceiling. Wilful is progressive but faces a completely different class test.
Recent renewals have been dominated by genuine Grade 1 stars like Honeysuckle and State Man. Lossiemouth fits that mould perfectly.
In truth, this isn’t a race to overcomplicate. If she runs to form, she wins.
Selection: Lossiemouth
Confidence: Strong