The 2.25 at the Curragh, the Tetrarch Stakes, looks a straightforward race on the surface, but there are a few nuances worth addressing before landing on the most likely winner.

From an HRB TimeWise perspective, the focus must sit firmly on the top two, with Causeway dominating the ratings as a clear Rank 1. Historically, this is the zone where the majority of winners come from, and the gap he holds over his rivals is significant enough to demand respect rather than opposition.

Causeway arrives here unbeaten in two starts this season and shaped like a colt with plenty more to offer. His Naas win last time, albeit narrow, had the look of a horse doing just enough, and his pedigree strongly suggests this step up to a mile will unlock further improvement. With Ryan Moore booked and Aidan O’Brien’s excellent Curragh record, the profile is rock solid.

The obvious alternative is Geryon, the Rank 2 horse and the only one that fits the model as a realistic threat. His form as a two-year-old at this track reads well, and he can be forgiven his latest effort over an inadequate 7f. Back up to a mile, he should be more competitive, especially given his prominent run style which could prove tactically advantageous.

The race shape adds a layer of intrigue. A single confirmed front runner in Iron Lily suggests the pace may not collapse, which could make life harder for hold-up types like Andab, despite his strong finishing credentials.

Neolithic, ranked third, is respected but falls outside the ideal HRB range and may find himself caught in a pace battle.

In summary, this looks set up for Causeway to confirm his superiority. He has the best blend of form, potential and connections, and in a race lacking depth, he is the one to beat.

Selection: Causeway – Confidence: Strong