The 3.00 at the Curragh looks a typical early-season three-year-old handicap on the surface, but the combination of HRB ratings and race shape gives this a much clearer structure than most.

Starting with the numbers, Sanctijude sits top of the TimeWise Master ratings and that immediately commands respect. Historically, Rank 1 delivers the bulk of winners in these races, and there’s little reason to oppose that here. She brings a consistent profile, regularly shaping as though more is to come, and her latest run can be upgraded given she was positioned poorly off the pace. Crucially, she’s flagged as the strongest late finisher in the field, which ties directly into how this race is likely to unfold.

Comment Shaper points towards a strongly run race with a high collapse risk. Two front runners and additional prominent racers should ensure a proper gallop, and that raises serious questions about those expected to race forward. It’s here where Institute, the Rank 2 horse, becomes vulnerable. While the O’Brien/Moore combination and handicap debut angle are obvious positives, her tendency to race freely could be costly in a race where efficiency will matter late on.

Looking beyond the top two, Anushka makes some appeal. She’s another strong finisher and drops significantly in class after contesting a Group 3. That said, she still has to prove she’s up to this level in a handicap context and lacks the solidity of the top-rated selection.

Timeform’s preference for Prevalence is easy to understand given her unexposed profile, but she sits outside the key ratings positions and doesn’t have the same alignment with the expected race shape.

In a race where pace looks set to collapse, siding with a proven finisher at the top of the ratings makes the most sense. Sanctijude is the percentage call, though not without the usual risks attached to lightly raced handicappers.

Verdict: Medium confidence.