The 4.10 at the Curragh looks a deep enough Group 2 on the surface, but once you strip it back using the HRB ratings and race shape, it becomes a far more straightforward affair than the market might suggest.

Everything starts with Minnie Hauk, and there’s no getting away from her. She tops the HRB TimeWise Master ratings by a wide margin and, crucially, sits in that all-important Rank 1 slot, which historically produces the bulk of winners. This isn’t a marginal edge either — she’s clear by over 100 points, which in a small field like this is a significant gap.

Her profile backs it up. An Oaks winner who went on to finish a narrow second in the Arc, she brings genuine elite-level form into a race where her rivals are largely operating a tier below. Timeform’s view that she “will take all the beating” feels more like understatement than insight.

The Comment Shaper adds another layer. There’s a strong pace forecast with two front runners likely to ensure an honest gallop. That should play perfectly into Minnie Hauk’s hands. She’s typically ridden just off the pace and is flagged as a strong late finisher, exactly the type you want in a race where pressure up front could set things up for a closer.

Of the rest, Beset is the only one that makes any real appeal. She’s the clear Rank 2 on ratings and arrives in consistent form. However, her run style suggests she may be closer to the pace, and in a race with potential early pressure, that could leave her vulnerable late on.

In truth, the rest have too much to find or too many questions to answer.

Verdict: Minnie Hauk
Strength: Strong