The Weatherbys Cheshire Oaks looks a fascinating renewal despite attracting only five runners, and the race appears to revolve around the hugely exciting I’m The One, who heads the HRB TimeWise Master ratings by a wide margin.

John and Thady Gosden’s filly created a huge impression when winning on debut at Newbury last month, quickening clear to score by six lengths over 1m2f. Visually it was one of the standout performances by a three-year-old filly this spring, and the HRB figures fully support the hype. Her overall rating of 429.2 leaves her comfortably clear of the field, and historically the Rank 1 horse has a powerful strike-rate in races of this type.

Chester’s tight circuit can often favour tactical speed and prominent racers, which is another positive for I’m The One. Comment Shaper also highlights her as a filly who “often finishes well”, suggesting she possesses both the speed to hold position and the stamina to see out this longer trip strongly.

The main danger may actually be the O’Brien 2nd string Sugar Island, who ranks second on TimeWise and therefore fits the key historical profile far more closely than the market may suggest. Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last ten renewals of this race, and Sugar Island already brings Group 3-winning form into the contest. Timeform’s pace analysis also hints that a steadier gallop could suit her ideally.

Ryan Moore partners Amelia Earhart, and the addition of first-time hood and blinkers makes her intriguing, but under the HRB model Rank 3 runners need extra supporting evidence to overturn the top two. She may also face tactical pressure if involved in the early pace battle.

Everything points towards I’m The One confirming herself as a genuine Oaks contender with victory here.

Selection: I’m The One
Danger: Sugar Island
Confidence: Strong